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AI MODEL READ

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CWS vs TB

Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

Saturday, August 1, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CWS @ TB simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CHICAGOCWS
0·0
TAMPA BAYTB
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

CWS DUGOUTTB DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Sam Antonacci (L) vs HP

FB93.8
SL84.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Sam Antonacci in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · SAM ANTONACCI

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TB to win

59%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TB -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TB

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TB wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYSam Antonacci at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 75 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Chicago WS vs Tampa Bay Winner?

49%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGETB
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

CWS STARTER

Anthony Kay

GOOD
3.8
PROJECTED Ks
107
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 23% · 19% whiffSweeper · 22% · 36% whiffSinker · 18% · 18% whiff

TB STARTER

Griffin Jax

GOOD
5.9
PROJECTED Ks
111
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sweeper · 26% · 38% whiffChangeup · 24% · 43% whiffSinker · 21% · 14% whiff

Griffin Jax grades good (Pitching+ 111) vs Anthony Kay grades good (Pitching+ 107)

CWS LINEUP

  1. 1Sam Antonacci (L)hit 62% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Munetaka Murakamihit 63% · HR 28%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    28%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Miguel Vargas (R)hit 59% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Colson Montgomery (L)hit 58% · HR 20%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Andrew Benintendi (L)hit 56% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Braden Montgomery (S)hit 52% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Tristan Peters (L)hit 54% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Chase Meidroth (R)hit 49% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Edgar Querohit 46% · HR 4%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    18%

    2+ BASES

    8%

    3+ BASES

    5%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

TB LINEUP

  1. 1Yandy Díaz (R)hit 68% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Chandler Simpson (L)hit 68% · HR 4%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Junior Caminero (R)hit 66% · HR 23%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    42%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Victor Mesa Jr. (L)hit 61% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jonny DeLuca (R)hit 62% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Ryan Vilade (R)hit 56% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Ben Williamson (R)hit 55% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Nick Fortes (R)hit 57% · HR 5%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Taylor Walls (S)hit 51% · HR 3%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    3%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    5%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CWS TB

Game Markets

CWS @ TB · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

TB F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

41%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

44%

Run Line

TB -1.5

43%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

32%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

TB projects to outscore CWS by 0.88 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CWS 3.53, TB 4.41
  • Anthony Kay (CWS) vs Griffin Jax (TB)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
AK

Anthony Kay

CWS SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

28%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 32% to reach 5+ against TB
GJ

Griffin Jax

TB SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

42%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

28%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

17%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.9 strikeouts
  • 74% to reach 5+ against CWS
MM

Munetaka Murakami

CWS · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Griffin Jax
JC

Junior Caminero

TB · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Anthony Kay
MV

Miguel Vargas

CWS · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Griffin Jax
CM

Colson Montgomery

CWS · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Griffin Jax
VJ

Victor Mesa Jr.

TB · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Anthony Kay
YD

Yandy Díaz

TB · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Anthony Kay
CS

Chandler Simpson

TB · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Anthony Kay
JD

Jonny DeLuca

TB · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Anthony Kay
SA

Sam Antonacci

CWS · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Griffin Jax
RV

Ryan Vilade

TB · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Anthony Kay
AB

Andrew Benintendi

CWS · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Griffin Jax
NF

Nick Fortes

TB · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Anthony Kay
BW

Ben Williamson

TB · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Anthony Kay
TP

Tristan Peters

CWS · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Griffin Jax
BM

Braden Montgomery

CWS · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Facing Griffin Jax
TW

Taylor Walls

TB · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

3%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

5%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Anthony Kay
CM

Chase Meidroth

CWS · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Griffin Jax
EQ

Edgar Quero

CWS · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

19%

Total Bases

3+ bases

8%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

16%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 61%.

  • Batting 9
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Griffin Jax

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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