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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

BOS vs LAD

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers

Saturday, August 1, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the BOS @ LAD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

BOSTONBOS
0·0
LOS ANGELESLAD
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

BOS DUGOUTLAD DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

CT88.8
SL85.4

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

LAD to win

60%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

LAD -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL LAD

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

LAD wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 81 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Boston vs Los Angeles D Winner?

50%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

our sim and the sharpest books agree

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGELAD
LINEUP EDGELAD

BOS STARTER

Jake Bennett

AVERAGE
3.5
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 35% · 23% whiffSinker · 26% · 10% whiffChangeup · 26% · 35% whiff

LAD STARTER

Emmet Sheehan

GOOD
6.3
PROJECTED Ks
108
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 43% · 28% whiffSlider · 30% · 38% whiffChangeup · 17% · 23% whiff

Emmet Sheehan grades good (Pitching+ 108) vs Jake Bennett grades avg (Pitching+ 105)

BOS LINEUP

  1. 1Anthony Seigler (S)hit 61% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Ceddanne Rafaela (R)hit 64% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Wilyer Abreu (L)hit 59% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Caleb Durbin (R)hit 59% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Masataka Yoshida (L)hit 58% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nick Sogardhit 57% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Andruw Monasterio (R)hit 59% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jarren Duran (L)hit 49% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Connor Wong (R)hit 51% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

LAD LINEUP

  1. 1Shohei Ohtani (L)hit 66% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Andy Pages (R)hit 60% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Tommy Edman (S)hit 59% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Freddie Freeman (L)hit 65% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Enrique Hernándezhit 54% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 57% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Max Muncy (L)hit 58% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Miguel Rojas (R)hit 56% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Dalton Rushing (L)hit 55% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

BOS LAD

Game Markets

BOS @ LAD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

LAD F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

46%

Run Line

LAD -1.5

41%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

35%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore BOS by 0.62 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BOS 3.79, LAD 4.42
  • Jake Bennett (BOS) vs Emmet Sheehan (LAD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JB

Jake Bennett

BOS SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

44%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

56%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 27% to reach 5+ against LAD
ES

Emmet Sheehan

LAD SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

15%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

60%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

5%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

36%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

23%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.3 strikeouts
  • 80% to reach 5+ against BOS
SO

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jake Bennett
FF

Freddie Freeman

LAD · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jake Bennett
WA

Wilyer Abreu

BOS · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Emmet Sheehan
CR

Ceddanne Rafaela

BOS · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Emmet Sheehan
MM

Max Muncy

LAD · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Jake Bennett
DR

Dalton Rushing

LAD · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jake Bennett
AS

Anthony Seigler

BOS · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Facing Emmet Sheehan
CD

Caleb Durbin

BOS · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 29% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Emmet Sheehan
AM

Andruw Monasterio

BOS · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ bases — 39% against 35% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Emmet Sheehan
AP

Andy Pages

LAD · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jake Bennett
TH

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Jake Bennett
TE

Tommy Edman

LAD · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Facing Jake Bennett
MY

Masataka Yoshida

BOS · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Emmet Sheehan
NS

Nick Sogard

BOS · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 6
  • Facing Emmet Sheehan
MR

Miguel Rojas

LAD · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Jake Bennett
EH

Enrique Hernández

LAD · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 5
  • Facing Jake Bennett
JD

Jarren Duran

BOS · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 12%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Emmet Sheehan
CW

Connor Wong

BOS · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Emmet Sheehan

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.