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WSH vs ATL

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves

Friday, July 31, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the WSH @ ATL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

WASHINGTONWSH
0·0
ATLANTAATL
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

WSH DUGOUTATL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

James Wood (L) vs HP

FB93.3
SL85.9
FB93.1
FB95.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

James Wood in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · JAMES WOOD

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

ATL to win

53%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

ATL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL ATL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

ATL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYJames Wood at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 83 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Washington vs Atlanta Winner?

63%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEWSH
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

WSH STARTER

Miles Mikolas

AVERAGE
1.9
PROJECTED Ks
97
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 26% · 14% whiffSinker · 25% · 10% whiffSlider · 23% · 17% whiff

ATL STARTER

Reynaldo López

SHAKY
4.1
PROJECTED Ks
90
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 55% · 16% whiffSlider · 31% · 35% whiffCurveball · 11% · 22% whiff

Reynaldo López grades poor (Pitching+ 90) vs Miles Mikolas grades avg (Pitching+ 97)

WSH LINEUP

  1. 1James Wood (L)hit 72% · HR 31%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    31%

    HOME RUN

    52%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    33%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    60%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Luis García Jr. (L)hit 72% · HR 29%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    36%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    40%

    3+ BASES

    33%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    23%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Dylan Crews (R)hit 61% · HR 14%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4CJ Abrams (L)hit 69% · HR 26%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brady Househit 59% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Daylen Lile (L)hit 60% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Harry Fordhit 58% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8José Tena (L)hit 59% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jacob Young (R)hit 52% · HR 9%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

ATL LINEUP

  1. 1Ronald Acuña Jr.hit 68% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Drake Baldwin (L)hit 69% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Matt Olson (L)hit 69% · HR 23%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ozzie Albies (S)hit 65% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Michael Harris II (L)hit 68% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Mauricio Dubón (R)hit 60% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Austin Riley (R)hit 61% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Joey Bart (R)hit 61% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jim Jarvis (L)hit 58% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

WSH ATL

Game Markets

WSH @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATL to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

59%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

65%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

42%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

55%

THE READ

ATL projects to outscore WSH by 0.58 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: WSH 4.74, ATL 5.33
  • Miles Mikolas (WSH) vs Reynaldo López (ATL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MM

Miles Mikolas

WSH SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

40%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 1.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 1.9 strikeouts
  • 4% to reach 5+ against ATL
RL

Reynaldo López

ATL SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

82%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

14%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

47%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against WSH
JW

James Wood

WSH · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

31%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

35%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Reynaldo López
LJ

Luis García Jr.

WSH · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

35%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Reynaldo López
CA

CJ Abrams

WSH · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Reynaldo López
MO

Matt Olson

ATL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Miles Mikolas
DB

Drake Baldwin

ATL · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Miles Mikolas
RJ

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Miles Mikolas
MI

Michael Harris II

ATL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Miles Mikolas
OA

Ozzie Albies

ATL · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Facing Miles Mikolas
DC

Dylan Crews

WSH · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Reynaldo López
AR

Austin Riley

ATL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Miles Mikolas
JB

Joey Bart

ATL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Miles Mikolas
DL

Daylen Lile

WSH · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 66%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Reynaldo López
MD

Mauricio Dubón

ATL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 66%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Miles Mikolas
JT

José Tena

WSH · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Reynaldo López
BH

Brady House

WSH · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 66%.

  • Batting 5
  • Facing Reynaldo López
JJ

Jim Jarvis

ATL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 66%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Miles Mikolas
HF

Harry Ford

WSH · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 66%.

  • Batting 7
  • Facing Reynaldo López
JY

Jacob Young

WSH · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 66%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Reynaldo López

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.