AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDTEX vs HOU
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
Friday, July 31, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TEX @ HOU simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
Joc Pederson (L) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
Joc Pederson in this spot
BATTER PROPS · JOC PEDERSON
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
HOU to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
HOU -1.5
TEAM TOTAL HOU
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
HOU wins F5
event 1 / 77 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDTexas vs Houston Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
TEX STARTER
Jacob deGrom
ELITE- 7.0
- PROJECTED Ks
- 117
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
HOU STARTER
Ronel Blanco
AVERAGE- 4.2
- PROJECTED Ks
- 99
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.
Ronel Blanco grades avg (Pitching+ 99) vs Jacob deGrom grades elite (Pitching+ 117)
TEX LINEUP
1Joc Pederson (L)hit 61% · HR 22%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
2Wyatt Langfordhit 66% · HR 21%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
3Corey Seagerhit 51% · HR 15%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
4Brandon Nimmo (L)hit 57% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
5Ezequiel Duran (R)hit 57% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
6Evan Carter (L)hit 48% · HR 8%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
48%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
7Jake Burger (R)hit 52% · HR 14%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
8Nicky Lopez (L)hit 53% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
9Austin Wynnshit 43% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
43%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
19%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
HOU LINEUP
1Jeremy Peñahit 66% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
2Yordan Alvarez (L)hit 71% · HR 34%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
34%
HOME RUN
52%
2+ BASES
40%
3+ BASES
35%
4+ BASES
43%
RBI
21%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
3Isaac Paredes (R)hit 57% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
4Christian Walker (R)hit 57% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
5Jose Altuve (R)hit 51% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
23%
SCORES A RUN
6Taylor Trammell (L)hit 53% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
7Yainer Diaz (R)hit 53% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
8LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)hit 47% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
9Cam Smith (R)hit 48% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
48%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TEX @ HOU · full-game reads
Moneyline
TEX to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
HOU F5
29%
Game Total
Over 8.5
40%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
44%
Run Line
HOU -1.5
25%
Team Total
TEX Over 4.5
42%
Team Total
HOU Over 4.5
29%
THE READ
TEX projects to outscore HOU by 0.93 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: TEX 4.37, HOU 3.44
- Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs Ronel Blanco (HOU)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Jacob deGrom
TEX SP · vs. HOU
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
87%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
74%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
58%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
24%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
61%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
18%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
35%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
22%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 7.0 strikeouts
- 87% to reach 5+ against HOU
Ronel Blanco
HOU SP · vs. TEX
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
43%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
28%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
43%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
29%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
- 43% to reach 5+ against TEX
Yordan Alvarez
HOU · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
34%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 34% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Joc Pederson
TEX · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ronel Blanco
Wyatt Langford
TEX · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ronel Blanco
Jeremy Peña
HOU · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Christian Walker
HOU · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Jake Burger
TEX · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ronel Blanco
Corey Seager
TEX · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Ronel Blanco
Brandon Nimmo
TEX · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Ronel Blanco
Ezequiel Duran
TEX · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ronel Blanco
Isaac Paredes
HOU · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Yainer Diaz
HOU · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Nicky Lopez
TEX · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ronel Blanco
Taylor Trammell
HOU · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Jose Altuve
HOU · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 58%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Cam Smith
HOU · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 58%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Evan Carter
TEX · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 58%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ronel Blanco
LaMonte Wade Jr.
HOU · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 58%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Austin Wynns
TEX · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
45%
Hits
2+ hits
10%
Total Bases
2+ bases
21%
Total Bases
3+ bases
10%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 58%.
- Batting 9
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ronel Blanco
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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