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STL vs TOR

St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays

Friday, July 31, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the STL @ TOR simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

ST. LOUISSTL
0·0
TORONTOTOR
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

STL DUGOUTTOR DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Lars Nootbaar (L) vs HP

CV78.5
CH83.9
CH84.8
CV79
SL84.5

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Lars Nootbaar in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LARS NOOTBAAR

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TOR to win

53%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TOR -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TOR

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TOR wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLars Nootbaar at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 77 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

St. Louis vs Toronto Winner?

75%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGETOR
LINEUP EDGETOR

STL STARTER

Kyle Leahy

AVERAGE
3.2
PROJECTED Ks
100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 28% · 17% whiffSlider · 16% · 21% whiffCurveball · 16% · 27% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

TOR STARTER

Dylan Cease

GOOD
8.6
PROJECTED Ks
107
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 36% · 29% whiffSlider · 30% · 44% whiffChangeup · 12% · 54% whiff

Dylan Cease grades good (Pitching+ 107) vs Kyle Leahy grades avg (Pitching+ 100)

STL LINEUP

  1. 1JJ Wetherholt (L)hit 55% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jordan Walker (R)hit 57% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Alec Burleson (L)hit 59% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Iván Herrera (R)hit 51% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Lars Nootbaar (L)hit 50% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Masyn Winn (R)hit 46% · HR 4%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    5%

    4+ BASES

    17%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    20%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Nathan Church (L)hit 44% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    21%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8José Fermín (R)hit 46% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jimmy Crooks (L)hit 39% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    39%

    1+ HIT

    8%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    18%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

TOR LINEUP

  1. 1Nathan Lukes (L)hit 68% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)hit 65% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Kazuma Okamoto (R)hit 68% · HR 28%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    28%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4George Springerhit 67% · HR 24%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Daulton Varsho (L)hit 61% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Ernie Clement (R)hit 64% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jesús Sánchezhit 64% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Brandon Valenzuela (S)hit 57% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Andrés Giménez (L)hit 53% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

STL TOR

Game Markets

STL @ TOR · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TOR to win

69%

1st 5 Innings

TOR F5

60%

Game Total

Over 8.5

36%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

41%

Run Line

TOR -1.5

50%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

23%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

TOR projects to outscore STL by 1.60 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: STL 2.96, TOR 4.55
  • Kyle Leahy (STL) vs Dylan Cease (TOR)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
KL

Kyle Leahy

STL SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

60%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

24%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

47%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 22% to reach 5+ against TOR
DC

Dylan Cease

TOR SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

92%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

85%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

75%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

51%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

45%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

29%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

17%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.6 strikeouts
  • 92% to reach 5+ against STL
KO

Kazuma Okamoto

TOR · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
GS

George Springer

TOR · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
NL

Nathan Lukes

TOR · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
VJ

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
JW

Jordan Walker

STL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Dylan Cease
EC

Ernie Clement

TOR · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
JS

Jesús Sánchez

TOR · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
AB

Alec Burleson

STL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Dylan Cease
JW

JJ Wetherholt

STL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Dylan Cease
DV

Daulton Varsho

TOR · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 29% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
BV

Brandon Valenzuela

TOR · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
AG

Andrés Giménez

TOR · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 59%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
IH

Iván Herrera

STL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 59%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dylan Cease
LN

Lars Nootbaar

STL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 59%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Dylan Cease
JF

José Fermín

STL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dylan Cease
MW

Masyn Winn

STL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dylan Cease
NC

Nathan Church

STL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 59%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dylan Cease
JC

Jimmy Crooks

STL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

41%

Hits

2+ hits

9%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

16%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 41% against 59%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Dylan Cease

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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