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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

SF vs SD

San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres

Friday, July 31, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SF @ SD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SAN FRANCISCOSF
0·0
SAN DIEGOSD
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

SF DUGOUTSD DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

FB93.7
FB94.3
CH83.9
FB95.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SD to win

47%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SD -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SD

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SD wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 75 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

San Francisco vs San Diego Winner?

66%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESF
LINEUP EDGESD

SF STARTER

Tyler Mahle

AVERAGE
4.0
PROJECTED Ks
100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 48% · 19% whiffSplit-Finger · 25% · 27% whiffCutter · 17% · 12% whiff

SD STARTER

Walker Buehler

AVERAGE
3.1
PROJECTED Ks
97
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Cutter · 24% · 22% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 20% · 12% whiffSinker · 18% · 11% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Walker Buehler grades avg (Pitching+ 97) vs Tyler Mahle grades avg (Pitching+ 100)

SF LINEUP

  1. 1Luis Arraez (L)hit 66% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Heliot Ramos (R)hit 59% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryce Eldridge (L)hit 59% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Rafael Devers (L)hit 61% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jung Hoo Lee (L)hit 58% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Willy Adames (R)hit 56% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Grant McCrayhit 53% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Drew Cavanaugh (L)hit 51% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Christian Koss (R)hit 46% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

SD LINEUP

  1. 1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)hit 66% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Luis Rengifohit 60% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Manny Machado (R)hit 63% · HR 30%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    30%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    31%

    4+ BASES

    42%

    RBI

    22%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ty France (R)hit 63% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jackson Merrill (L)hit 58% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Luis Campusano (R)hit 60% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Xander Bogaerts (R)hit 52% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Freddy Ferminhit 46% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jase Bowen (R)hit 49% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

SF SD

Game Markets

SF @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

51%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

54%

Run Line

SD -1.5

36%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

44%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.00 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: SF 4.44, SD 4.56
  • Tyler Mahle (SF) vs Walker Buehler (SD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
TM

Tyler Mahle

SF SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

80%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

45%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

53%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 37% to reach 5+ against SD
WB

Walker Buehler

SD SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

13%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

38%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 18% to reach 5+ against SF
MM

Manny Machado

SD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
TF

Ty France

SD · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
RD

Rafael Devers

SF · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Walker Buehler
LA

Luis Arraez

SF · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Walker Buehler
FJ

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
BE

Bryce Eldridge

SF · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Walker Buehler
LC

Luis Campusano

SD · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
JM

Jackson Merrill

SD · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
JL

Jung Hoo Lee

SF · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 22% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Walker Buehler
WA

Willy Adames

SF · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Walker Buehler
LR

Luis Rengifo

SD · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 2
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
HR

Heliot Ramos

SF · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Walker Buehler
GM

Grant McCray

SF · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 60%.

  • Batting 7
  • Facing Walker Buehler
XB

Xander Bogaerts

SD · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
DC

Drew Cavanaugh

SF · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 60%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Walker Buehler
JB

Jase Bowen

SD · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
CK

Christian Koss

SF · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Walker Buehler
FF

Freddy Fermin

SD · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 60%.

  • Batting 8
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Mahle

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.