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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

PIT vs CIN

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

Friday, July 31, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the PIT @ CIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

PITTSBURGHPIT
0·0
CINCINNATICIN
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PIT DUGOUTCIN DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Jake Mangum (L) vs HP

SL84.8
FB94.5

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Jake Mangum in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · JAKE MANGUM

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CIN to win

63%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CIN wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYJake Mangum at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 87 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati Winner?

63%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEPIT
LINEUP EDGEPIT

PIT STARTER

Braxton Ashcraft

GOOD
5.8
PROJECTED Ks
109
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 32% · 16% whiffCurveball · 26% · 41% whiffSlider · 23% · 31% whiff

CIN STARTER

Andrew Abbott

SHAKY
3.9
PROJECTED Ks
94
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 46% · 13% whiffSweeper · 20% · 29% whiffChangeup · 18% · 37% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Andrew Abbott grades poor (Pitching+ 94) vs Braxton Ashcraft grades good (Pitching+ 109)

PIT LINEUP

  1. 1Jake Mangum (S)hit 70% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brandon Lowe (L)hit 71% · HR 32%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    32%

    HOME RUN

    55%

    2+ BASES

    41%

    3+ BASES

    34%

    4+ BASES

    46%

    RBI

    23%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryan Reynolds (S)hit 69% · HR 21%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    52%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Esmerlyn Valdez (R)hit 71% · HR 35%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    35%

    HOME RUN

    54%

    2+ BASES

    43%

    3+ BASES

    37%

    4+ BASES

    49%

    RBI

    28%

    2+ RBIs

    55%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Ryan O'Hearn (L)hit 68% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nick Gonzales (R)hit 68% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Endy Rodríguez (S)hit 65% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jacob Gonzalez (L)hit 61% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Henry Davis (R)hit 56% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

CIN LINEUP

  1. 1Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 68% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Sal Stewart (R)hit 67% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3JJ Bleday (L)hit 60% · HR 17%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Tyler Stephenson (R)hit 64% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nathaniel Lowe (L)hit 60% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 57% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Dane Myershit 60% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Noelvi Marte (R)hit 55% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Matt McLain (R)hit 49% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

PIT CIN

Game Markets

PIT @ CIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

CIN F5

31%

Game Total

Over 8.5

64%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

61%

Run Line

CIN -1.5

26%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

61%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

PIT projects to outscore CIN by 1.43 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PIT 6.01, CIN 4.58
  • Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) vs Andrew Abbott (CIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BA

Braxton Ashcraft

PIT SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

70%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

13%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

37%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
  • 70% to reach 5+ against CIN
AA

Andrew Abbott

CIN SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

83%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

38%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

73%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

61%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
  • 35% to reach 5+ against PIT
EV

Esmerlyn Valdez

PIT · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

35%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

46%

Total Bases

4+ bases

39%

RBIs

1+ RBI

51%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

28%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 35% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andrew Abbott
BL

Brandon Lowe

PIT · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

32%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

44%

Total Bases

4+ bases

37%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Andrew Abbott
RO

Ryan O'Hearn

PIT · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Andrew Abbott
BR

Bryan Reynolds

PIT · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Andrew Abbott
JM

Jake Mangum

PIT · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Facing Andrew Abbott
NG

Nick Gonzales

PIT · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andrew Abbott
SS

Sal Stewart

CIN · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Braxton Ashcraft
EC

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 33% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Braxton Ashcraft
ER

Endy Rodríguez

PIT · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Facing Andrew Abbott
JB

JJ Bleday

CIN · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Braxton Ashcraft
TS

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Braxton Ashcraft
JG

Jacob Gonzalez

PIT · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Andrew Abbott
DM

Dane Myers

CIN · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 66%.

  • Batting 7
  • Facing Braxton Ashcraft
NL

Nathaniel Lowe

CIN · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 66%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Braxton Ashcraft
HD

Henry Davis

PIT · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 16% against 17%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Andrew Abbott
ES

Eugenio Suárez

CIN · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 66%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Braxton Ashcraft
NM

Noelvi Marte

CIN · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Braxton Ashcraft
MM

Matt McLain

CIN · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 66%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Braxton Ashcraft

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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