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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

PHI vs BAL

Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles

Friday, July 31, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the PHI @ BAL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

PHILADELPHIAPHI
0·0
BALTIMOREBAL
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

PHI DUGOUTBAL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Trea Turner (R) vs HP

FB94.8
CH84.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Trea Turner in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · TREA TURNER

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

BAL to win

37%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

BAL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL BAL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

BAL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYTrea Turner at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 75 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Philadelphia vs Baltimore Winner?

57%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

our sim and the sharpest books agree

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEPHI
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

PHI STARTER

Cristopher Sánchez

ELITE
7.9
PROJECTED Ks
115
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 43% · 13% whiffChangeup · 39% · 46% whiffSlider · 19% · 45% whiff

BAL STARTER

Shane Baz

AVERAGE
4.6
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 34% · 18% whiffCurveball · 33% · 29% whiffCutter · 17% · 22% whiff

Shane Baz grades avg (Pitching+ 102) vs Cristopher Sánchez grades elite (Pitching+ 115)

PHI LINEUP

  1. 1Trea Turner (R)hit 67% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Kyle Schwarber (L)hit 71% · HR 36%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    36%

    HOME RUN

    54%

    2+ BASES

    43%

    3+ BASES

    37%

    4+ BASES

    47%

    RBI

    22%

    2+ RBIs

    58%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryce Harper (L)hit 71% · HR 31%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    31%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    33%

    4+ BASES

    45%

    RBI

    23%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Alec Bohm (R)hit 63% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brandon Marsh (L)hit 69% · HR 20%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6J.T. Realmuto (R)hit 59% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Bryson Stott (L)hit 59% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)hit 55% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Justin Crawford (L)hit 58% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

BAL LINEUP

  1. 1Dylan Beavers (L)hit 66% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Pete Alonso (R)hit 69% · HR 26%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Gunnar Henderson (L)hit 64% · HR 19%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Taylor Ward (R)hit 62% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Leody Taveras (S)hit 60% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jackson Holliday (L)hit 62% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Coby Mayo (R)hit 63% · HR 24%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Colton Cowser (L)hit 59% · HR 16%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Yohel Pozohit 53% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

PHI BAL

Game Markets

PHI @ BAL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

61%

1st 5 Innings

BAL F5

30%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

46%

Run Line

BAL -1.5

24%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

29%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore BAL by 1.34 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PHI 4.76, BAL 3.42
  • Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) vs Shane Baz (BAL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CS

Cristopher Sánchez

PHI SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

90%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

40%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

84%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

60%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.9 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.9 strikeouts
  • 90% to reach 5+ against BAL
SB

Shane Baz

BAL SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

91%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

63%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

57%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 49% to reach 5+ against PHI
KS

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

36%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

46%

Total Bases

4+ bases

40%

RBIs

1+ RBI

49%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 36% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Shane Baz
BH

Bryce Harper

PHI · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

31%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

42%

Total Bases

4+ bases

36%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Shane Baz
PA

Pete Alonso

BAL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
CM

Coby Mayo

BAL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
BM

Brandon Marsh

PHI · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shane Baz
TT

Trea Turner

PHI · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Shane Baz
GH

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
DB

Dylan Beavers

BAL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
JH

Jackson Holliday

BAL · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
CC

Colton Cowser

BAL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
AB

Alec Bohm

PHI · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Shane Baz
TW

Taylor Ward

BAL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
LT

Leody Taveras

BAL · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez
JR

J.T. Realmuto

PHI · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 66%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Shane Baz
BS

Bryson Stott

PHI · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 66%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Shane Baz
JC

Justin Crawford

PHI · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 66%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shane Baz
GJ

Gabriel Rincones Jr.

PHI · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shane Baz
YP

Yohel Pozo

BAL · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 66%.

  • Batting 9
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cristopher Sánchez

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.