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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

NYY vs CHC

New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs

Friday, July 31, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the NYY @ CHC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

NEW YORKNYY
0·0
CHICAGOCHC
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

NYY DUGOUTCHC DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Trent Grisham (L) vs HP

FB92.5
FB93.7
CT89.4
FB93.2
FB94.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Trent Grisham in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · TRENT GRISHAM

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CHC to win

33%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CHC -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CHC

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CHC wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYTrent Grisham at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 76 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

New York Y vs Chicago C Winner?

54%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

our sim and the sharpest books agree

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

CHC Over 4.5 runs

47%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 5-for-16 (.312) with 1 HR vs. this starter, career · 81°F, 11mph wind

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGENYY
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

NYY STARTER

Max Fried

GOOD
4.4
PROJECTED Ks
109
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Cutter · 23% · 27% whiffSinker · 22% · 16% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 17% · 21% whiff

CHC STARTER

David Peterson

SHAKY
4.4
PROJECTED Ks
93
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 30% · 12% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 24% · 16% whiffSlider · 23% · 30% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

David Peterson grades poor (Pitching+ 93) vs Max Fried grades good (Pitching+ 109)

NYY LINEUP

  1. 1Paul Goldschmidt (R)hit 72% · HR 27%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Ben Rice (L)hit 71% · HR 26%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Amed Rosario (R)hit 61% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jasson Domínguez (S)hit 60% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Trent Grisham (L)hit 61% · HR 12%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Anthony Volpe (R)hit 59% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Spencer Joneshit 62% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Ali Sánchez (R)hit 56% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9José Caballero (R)hit 56% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

CHC LINEUP

  1. 1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)hit 70% · HR 29%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    38%

    3+ BASES

    31%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    53%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Pedro Ramírez (S)hit 64% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Michael Busch (L)hit 63% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Alex Bregman (R)hit 59% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Ian Happ (S)hit 60% · HR 21%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nico Hoerner (R)hit 58% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Michael Conforto (L)hit 60% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Dansby Swanson (R)hit 55% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Miguel Amaya (R)hit 52% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

NYY CHC

Game Markets

NYY @ CHC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

66%

1st 5 Innings

CHC F5

33%

Game Total

Over 8.5

59%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

58%

Run Line

CHC -1.5

22%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

62%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore CHC by 1.93 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYY 5.93, CHC 3.99
  • Max Fried (NYY) vs David Peterson (CHC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MF

Max Fried

NYY SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

70%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

39%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 45% to reach 5+ against CHC
DP

David Peterson

CHC SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

97%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

79%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

82%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

71%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 44% to reach 5+ against NYY
PC

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Max Fried
PG

Paul Goldschmidt

NYY · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing David Peterson
BR

Ben Rice

NYY · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing David Peterson
IH

Ian Happ

CHC · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Fried
MC

Michael Conforto

CHC · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Max Fried
MB

Michael Busch

CHC · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Max Fried
PR

Pedro Ramírez

CHC · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Max Fried
DS

Dansby Swanson

CHC · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Max Fried
SJ

Spencer Jones

NYY · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 7
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing David Peterson
AR

Amed Rosario

NYY · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing David Peterson
TG

Trent Grisham

NYY · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing David Peterson
JD

Jasson Domínguez

NYY · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing David Peterson
AV

Anthony Volpe

NYY · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing David Peterson
AB

Alex Bregman

CHC · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Max Fried
NH

Nico Hoerner

CHC · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 64%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Max Fried
AS

Ali Sánchez

NYY · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing David Peterson
JC

José Caballero

NYY · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing David Peterson
MA

Miguel Amaya

CHC · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Fried

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.