BETFLYAISIGN IN

AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

MIN vs SEA

Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners

Friday, July 31, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIN @ SEA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MINNESOTAMIN
0·0
SEATTLESEA
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

MIN DUGOUTSEA DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

FB93.3
FB92.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SEA to win

51%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SEA -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SEA

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SEA wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 74 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Minnesota vs Seattle Winner?

48%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESEA
LINEUP EDGESEA

MIN STARTER

Connor Prielipp

AVERAGE
4.8
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 30% · 16% whiffSlider · 29% · 28% whiffCurveball · 17% · 39% whiff

SEA STARTER

Logan Gilbert

GOOD
7.3
PROJECTED Ks
113
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 40% · 24% whiffSlider · 24% · 36% whiffSplit-Finger · 14% · 37% whiff

Logan Gilbert grades good (Pitching+ 113) vs Connor Prielipp grades avg (Pitching+ 102)

MIN LINEUP

  1. 1Trevor Larnach (L)hit 64% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Ryan Jeffershit 62% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Kody Clemens (L)hit 59% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Josh Bell (S)hit 56% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Royce Lewis (R)hit 52% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Alan Rodenhit 52% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Brooks Lee (S)hit 52% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Luke Keaschall (R)hit 53% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Tristan Gray (L)hit 49% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

SEA LINEUP

  1. 1Cole Young (L)hit 64% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Randy Arozarena (R)hit 68% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Dominic Canzone (L)hit 69% · HR 29%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    38%

    3+ BASES

    31%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Julio Rodríguezhit 60% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Josh Naylor (L)hit 56% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Cal Raleigh (S)hit 52% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Weston Wilson (R)hit 57% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Colt Emerson (L)hit 50% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Victor Robles (R)hit 49% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIN SEA

Game Markets

MIN @ SEA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SEA to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

SEA F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

32%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

36%

Run Line

SEA -1.5

38%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

28%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

33%

THE READ

SEA projects to outscore MIN by 0.43 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIN 3.30, SEA 3.73
  • Connor Prielipp (MIN) vs Logan Gilbert (SEA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CP

Connor Prielipp

MIN SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

81%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

13%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 54% to reach 5+ against SEA
LG

Logan Gilbert

SEA SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

89%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

78%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

29%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

75%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.3 strikeouts
  • 89% to reach 5+ against MIN
DC

Dominic Canzone

SEA · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
RA

Randy Arozarena

SEA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 23% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
RJ

Ryan Jeffers

MIN · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
KC

Kody Clemens

MIN · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
TL

Trevor Larnach

MIN · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
JR

Julio Rodríguez

SEA · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
CY

Cole Young

SEA · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
WW

Weston Wilson

SEA · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
CR

Cal Raleigh

SEA · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
JN

Josh Naylor

SEA · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
JB

Josh Bell

MIN · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
LK

Luke Keaschall

MIN · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
RL

Royce Lewis

MIN · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 59%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
AR

Alan Roden

MIN · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 59%.

  • Batting 6
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
BL

Brooks Lee

MIN · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 59%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Gilbert
CE

Colt Emerson

SEA · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
VR

Victor Robles

SEA · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 59%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
TG

Tristan Gray

MIN · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 59%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Gilbert

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.