AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDMIL vs LAA
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angels
Friday, July 31, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the MIL @ LAA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
League Avg (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
League Avg in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
LAA to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
LAA -1.5
TEAM TOTAL LAA
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
LAA wins F5
event 1 / 75 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDMilwaukee vs Los Angeles A Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
MIL STARTER
Robert Gasser
SHAKY- 3.8
- PROJECTED Ks
- 95
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
LAA STARTER
José Soriano
GOOD- 6.7
- PROJECTED Ks
- 105
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
José Soriano grades good (Pitching+ 105) vs Robert Gasser grades poor (Pitching+ 95)
MIL LINEUP
1Brice Turang (L)hit 71% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
54%
SCORES A RUN
2Jackson Chourio (R)hit 69% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
3Christian Yelich (L)hit 67% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
4William Contreras (R)hit 65% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
5Jake Bauers (L)hit 69% · HR 25%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
25%
HOME RUN
49%
2+ BASES
35%
3+ BASES
28%
4+ BASES
43%
RBI
21%
2+ RBIs
53%
SCORES A RUN
6Garrett Mitchell (L)hit 67% · HR 14%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
7Luis Larahit 65% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
8David Hamilton (L)hit 57% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
9Cooper Pratt (R)hit 61% · HR 10%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
LAA LINEUP
1Zach Neto (R)hit 62% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
2Mike Trouthit 63% · HR 15%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
3Nolan Schanuel (L)hit 56% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
4Jorge Soler (R)hit 57% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
5Vaughn Grissom (R)hit 58% · HR 7%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
6Jo Adell (R)hit 60% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
7Denzer Guzman (R)hit 53% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
8Travis d'Arnaudhit 53% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
9Jose Siri (R)hit 53% · HR 13%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
Every bat, graded by the sim.
Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/moIII · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
MIL @ LAA · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
51%
1st 5 Innings
LAA F5
46%
Game Total
Over 8.5
47%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
48%
Run Line
LAA -1.5
33%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
44%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
39%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore LAA by 0.29 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: MIL 4.43, LAA 4.14
- Robert Gasser (MIL) vs José Soriano (LAA)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Robert Gasser
MIL SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
51%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
26%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
53%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
39%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
- 34% to reach 5+ against LAA
José Soriano
LAA SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
82%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
67%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
51%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
22%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
77%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
31%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
48%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
33%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.7 strikeouts
- 82% to reach 5+ against MIL
Jake Bauers
MIL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing José Soriano
Brice Turang
MIL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing José Soriano
Jackson Chourio
MIL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing José Soriano
Jo Adell
LAA · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Robert Gasser
Garrett Mitchell
MIL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing José Soriano
Luis Lara
MIL · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing José Soriano
Christian Yelich
MIL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing José Soriano
Zach Neto
LAA · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Robert Gasser
William Contreras
MIL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing José Soriano
Mike Trout
LAA · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robert Gasser
Cooper Pratt
MIL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing José Soriano
Jose Siri
LAA · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robert Gasser
David Hamilton
MIL · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing José Soriano
Vaughn Grissom
LAA · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 64%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robert Gasser
Jorge Soler
LAA · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robert Gasser
Nolan Schanuel
LAA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Robert Gasser
Denzer Guzman
LAA · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robert Gasser
Travis d'Arnaud
LAA · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 13%.
- Batting 8
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robert Gasser
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.