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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

MIA vs NYM

Miami Marlins at New York Mets

Friday, July 31, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIA @ NYM simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MIAMIMIA
0·0
NEW YORKNYM
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

MIA DUGOUTNYM DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

MIA Leadoff (R) vs HP

CH86.1
SL84.8
CV78.4

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

MIA Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · MIA LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

NYM to win

37%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

NYM -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL NYM

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

NYM wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYMIA Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 18 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Miami vs New York M Winner?

63%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEMIA

MIA STARTER

Tyler Phillips

SHAKY
4.8
PROJECTED Ks
95
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 25% · 7% whiffSweeper · 24% · 36% whiffSplit-Finger · 23% · 29% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

NYM STARTER

Zac Thornton

SHAKY
3.8
PROJECTED Ks
92
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 16% whiffCutter · 26% · 20% whiffSweeper · 16% · 28% whiff

Watch out: Slider is getting hit hard lately.

Zac Thornton grades poor (Pitching+ 92) vs Tyler Phillips grades poor (Pitching+ 95)

MIA LINEUP

  1. 1Liam Hicks (L)hit 68% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Xavier Edwards (S)hit 65% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Otto Lopez (R)hit 69% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Kyle Stowers (L)hit 62% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Griffin Conine (L)hit 66% · HR 29%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    45%

    RBI

    23%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Heriberto Hernández (R)hit 59% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jakob Marsee (L)hit 51% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Joe Mack (L)hit 57% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Javier Sanoja (R)hit 56% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

NYM LINEUP

  1. 1A.J. Ewing (L)hit 66% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Francisco Lindor (S)hit 65% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bo Bichette (R)hit 63% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Carson Benge (L)hit 65% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Luis Robert Jr.hit 61% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jared Young (L)hit 63% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Brett Baty (L)hit 58% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jorge Polancohit 55% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Francisco Alvarez (R)hit 62% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIA NYM

Game Markets

MIA @ NYM · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIA to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

NYM F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

60%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

60%

Run Line

NYM -1.5

36%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

52%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

51%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 10.07 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: MIA 5.08, NYM 4.99
  • Tyler Phillips (MIA) vs Zac Thornton (NYM)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
TP

Tyler Phillips

MIA SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

84%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

61%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

58%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 53% to reach 5+ against NYM
ZT

Zac Thornton

NYM SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

94%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

65%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

76%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

64%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 34% to reach 5+ against MIA
GC

Griffin Conine

MIA · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Zac Thornton
KS

Kyle Stowers

MIA · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Zac Thornton
HH

Heriberto Hernández

MIA · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Zac Thornton
FA

Francisco Alvarez

NYM · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
OL

Otto Lopez

MIA · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Zac Thornton
LH

Liam Hicks

MIA · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Zac Thornton
FL

Francisco Lindor

NYM · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
JM

Joe Mack

MIA · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Zac Thornton
AE

A.J. Ewing

NYM · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
CB

Carson Benge

NYM · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
XE

Xavier Edwards

MIA · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Facing Zac Thornton
BB

Bo Bichette

NYM · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
LJ

Luis Robert Jr.

NYM · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 5
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
JY

Jared Young

NYM · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
BB

Brett Baty

NYM · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
JS

Javier Sanoja

MIA · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Zac Thornton
JP

Jorge Polanco

NYM · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.

  • Batting 8
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
JM

Jakob Marsee

MIA · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zac Thornton

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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