AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDKC vs COL
Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies
Friday, July 31, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the KC @ COL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
Carter Jensen (L) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
Carter Jensen in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CARTER JENSEN
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
COL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
COL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL COL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
COL wins F5
event 1 / 89 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDKansas City vs Colorado Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
KC STARTER
Luinder Avila
SHAKY- 4.9
- PROJECTED Ks
- 95
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
COL STARTER
Ryan Feltner
SHAKY- 3.6
- PROJECTED Ks
- 92
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.
Ryan Feltner grades poor (Pitching+ 92) vs Luinder Avila grades poor (Pitching+ 95)
KC LINEUP
1Carter Jensen (L)hit 78% · HR 28%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
78%
1+ HIT
44%
2+ HITS
28%
HOME RUN
59%
2+ BASES
43%
3+ BASES
34%
4+ BASES
45%
RBI
21%
2+ RBIs
58%
SCORES A RUN
2Lane Thomas (R)hit 70% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
3Jac Caglianone (L)hit 75% · HR 25%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
75%
1+ HIT
41%
2+ HITS
25%
HOME RUN
54%
2+ BASES
38%
3+ BASES
30%
4+ BASES
44%
RBI
23%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
4Salvador Perez (R)hit 70% · HR 21%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
47%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
5Michael Massey (L)hit 69% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
6Isaac Collins (S)hit 68% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
7John Ravehit 69% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
47%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
8Josh Rojas (L)hit 67% · HR 13%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
9Andrew Velazquezhit 65% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
COL LINEUP
1Jake McCarthy (L)hit 71% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
55%
SCORES A RUN
2Mickey Moniak (L)hit 77% · HR 34%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
77%
1+ HIT
42%
2+ HITS
34%
HOME RUN
58%
2+ BASES
46%
3+ BASES
38%
4+ BASES
49%
RBI
25%
2+ RBIs
61%
SCORES A RUN
3Hunter Goodman (R)hit 77% · HR 43%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
77%
1+ HIT
41%
2+ HITS
43%
HOME RUN
60%
2+ BASES
49%
3+ BASES
44%
4+ BASES
54%
RBI
31%
2+ RBIs
60%
SCORES A RUN
4TJ Rumfield (L)hit 72% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
48%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
5Kyle Karros (R)hit 67% · HR 15%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
6Tyler Freeman (R)hit 64% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
7Troy Johnston (L)hit 66% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
8Brenton Doylehit 64% · HR 13%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
9Ezequiel Tovar (R)hit 57% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
Every bat, graded by the sim.
Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/moIII · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
KC @ COL · full-game reads
Moneyline
KC to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
COL F5
43%
Game Total
Over 8.5
77%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
75%
Run Line
COL -1.5
33%
Team Total
KC Over 4.5
68%
Team Total
COL Over 4.5
62%
THE READ
KC projects to outscore COL by 0.82 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: KC 6.75, COL 5.93
- Luinder Avila (KC) vs Ryan Feltner (COL)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Luinder Avila
KC SP · vs. COL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
55%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
92%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
56%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
77%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
65%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
- 55% to reach 5+ against COL
Ryan Feltner
COL SP · vs. KC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
40%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
5%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
65%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
51%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
- 29% to reach 5+ against KC
Hunter Goodman
COL · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
43%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
64%
Total Bases
3+ bases
52%
Total Bases
4+ bases
47%
RBIs
1+ RBI
56%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
32%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 43% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Luinder Avila
Mickey Moniak
COL · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
34%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
62%
Total Bases
3+ bases
49%
Total Bases
4+ bases
41%
RBIs
1+ RBI
51%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 34% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Luinder Avila
Carter Jensen
KC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
46%
Total Bases
2+ bases
63%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 37% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Jac Caglianone
KC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Salvador Perez
KC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Feltner
John Rave
KC · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 7
- Facing Ryan Feltner
TJ Rumfield
COL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 76%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Luinder Avila
Jake McCarthy
COL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 74%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Luinder Avila
Lane Thomas
KC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Michael Massey
KC · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Josh Rojas
KC · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Isaac Collins
KC · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Kyle Karros
COL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Luinder Avila
Andrew Velazquez
KC · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 9
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Troy Johnston
COL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 69% against 72%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Luinder Avila
Tyler Freeman
COL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 72%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Luinder Avila
Brenton Doyle
COL · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 72%.
- Batting 8
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Luinder Avila
Ezequiel Tovar
COL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 72%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Luinder Avila
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.