BETFLYAISIGN IN
DETROITDET
53-58 · +4 AL CENTRAL · W2 · 6-4 L10
@FRI 9:40 PM ETATH HOME PARK
45-66 · +4 AL WEST · L4 · 2-8 L10
ATH
Weather
—
Home plate ump
Adam Beck K-0.8%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Tyler Holton
LHP · DETPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
3.10
IP
49.1
K/9
6.9
BB/9
2.2
WHIP
1.32
L5 STARTS3.40 ERA · 3.8% K · 7.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
18%
16%
16%
13%
CutterSinkerChangeupSweeper4-Seam Fastball
Jeffrey Springs
LHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+97
ERA
6.17
IP
108.0
K/9
7.3
BB/9
3.7
WHIP
1.48
L5 STARTS9.33 ERA · 10% K · 15% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
44%
26%
23%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETATH 56%

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

DET ATH

Game Markets

DET @ ATH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATH to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

ATH F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

49%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

ATH -1.5

38%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

ATH projects to outscore DET by 0.33 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: DET 4.27, ATH 4.59
  • Framber Valdez (DET) vs Jack Perkins (ATH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
FV

Framber Valdez

DET SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

80%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

32%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

51%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 30% to reach 5+ against ATH
JP

Jack Perkins

ATH SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

78%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

17%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

76%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

37%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.3 strikeouts
  • 78% to reach 5+ against DET
DD

Dillon Dingler

DET · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Jack Perkins
ST

Spencer Torkelson

DET · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Jack Perkins
KM

Kevin McGonigle

DET · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Jack Perkins
RG

Riley Greene

DET · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 17% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jack Perkins
HL

Hao-Yu Lee

DET · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jack Perkins
GT

Gleyber Torres

DET · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 2
  • Facing Jack Perkins
JB

Javier Báez

DET · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 8
  • Facing Jack Perkins
BM

Ben Malgeri

DET · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 65%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Jack Perkins
MC

Max Clark

DET · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 65%.

  • Batting 7
  • Facing Jack Perkins
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

TYLER HOLTON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%14.5%OPS-against.818
vs Left-handedK%23.5%OPS-against.676
ATH vs LHP (team)OPS.719K%24.6%

JEFFREY SPRINGS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how DET hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%19.0%OPS-against.881
vs Left-handedK%16.8%OPS-against.842
DET vs LHP (team)OPS.690K%22.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

ATH BATTERS vs TYLER HOLTON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

DET BATTERS vs JEFFREY SPRINGS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
DET 2·ATH 0
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
DET 5·ATH 0
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
93%DET
DET 50 · ATH 4 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-02DET 8-6
2026-08-01DET 13-1 · Blowout
2026-07-09DET 4-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

DET OFFENSE

.316L15 team wOBA
0 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

ATH OFFENSE

.304L15 team wOBA
-12 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT

Park factors unavailable.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
BECK
Called K rate-0.8% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr170

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

ATH 56%

Mean score sim 4.3–4.6 · projected total 8.9 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

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