AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCWS vs TB
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Friday, July 31, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CWS @ TB simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
Sam Antonacci (L) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
Sam Antonacci in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SAM ANTONACCI
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
TB to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
TB -1.5
TEAM TOTAL TB
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
TB wins F5
event 1 / 75 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDChicago WS vs Tampa Bay Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
CWS STARTER
Noah Schultz
SHAKY- 2.9
- PROJECTED Ks
- 92
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: Sweeper is getting hit hard lately.
TB STARTER
Drew Rasmussen
GOOD- 4.5
- PROJECTED Ks
- 115
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Drew Rasmussen grades good (Pitching+ 115) vs Noah Schultz grades poor (Pitching+ 92)
CWS LINEUP
1Sam Antonacci (L)hit 66% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
48%
SCORES A RUN
2Munetaka Murakamihit 71% · HR 36%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
36%
HOME RUN
53%
2+ BASES
42%
3+ BASES
37%
4+ BASES
45%
RBI
22%
2+ RBIs
55%
SCORES A RUN
3Miguel Vargas (R)hit 65% · HR 22%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
4Colson Montgomery (L)hit 62% · HR 24%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
24%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
5Andrew Benintendi (L)hit 61% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
6Braden Montgomery (S)hit 58% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
7Tristan Peters (L)hit 59% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
8Chase Meidroth (R)hit 57% · HR 8%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
9Drew Romo (S)hit 47% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
TB LINEUP
1Yandy Díaz (R)hit 73% · HR 16%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
73%
1+ HIT
36%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
47%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
52%
SCORES A RUN
2Jonathan Aranda (L)hit 74% · HR 22%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
74%
1+ HIT
36%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
53%
SCORES A RUN
3Junior Caminero (R)hit 72% · HR 29%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
35%
2+ HITS
29%
HOME RUN
52%
2+ BASES
38%
3+ BASES
31%
4+ BASES
46%
RBI
24%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
4Cedric Mullins (L)hit 57% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
5Chandler Simpson (L)hit 68% · HR 5%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
6Victor Mesa Jr. (L)hit 64% · HR 21%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
7Richie Palacios (L)hit 57% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
8Taylor Walls (S)hit 58% · HR 4%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
4%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
9Hunter Feduccia (L)hit 58% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
Every bat, graded by the sim.
Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CWS @ TB · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
68%
1st 5 Innings
TB F5
59%
Game Total
Over 8.5
45%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
48%
Run Line
TB -1.5
49%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
28%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
50%
THE READ
TB projects to outscore CWS by 1.58 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CWS 3.37, TB 4.95
- Noah Schultz (CWS) vs Drew Rasmussen (TB)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Noah Schultz
CWS SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
11%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
45%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
30%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
- 15% to reach 5+ against TB
Drew Rasmussen
TB SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
49%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
53%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
11%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
37%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
24%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
- 49% to reach 5+ against CWS
Munetaka Murakami
CWS · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
36%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
39%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 36% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Junior Caminero
TB · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Noah Schultz
Colson Montgomery
CWS · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Jonathan Aranda
TB · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 28% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Noah Schultz
Miguel Vargas
CWS · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Yandy Díaz
TB · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Noah Schultz
Victor Mesa Jr.
TB · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Noah Schultz
Chandler Simpson
TB · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Noah Schultz
Sam Antonacci
CWS · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Andrew Benintendi
CWS · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Tristan Peters
CWS · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 66%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Hunter Feduccia
TB · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 30% against 32%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Noah Schultz
Braden Montgomery
CWS · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 66%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Taylor Walls
TB · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Noah Schultz
Chase Meidroth
CWS · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Cedric Mullins
TB · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 66%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Noah Schultz
Richie Palacios
TB · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 66%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Noah Schultz
Drew Romo
CWS · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 66%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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