AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDBOS vs LAD
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers
Friday, July 31, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the BOS @ LAD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
League Avg (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
League Avg in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
LAD to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
LAD -1.5
TEAM TOTAL LAD
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
LAD wins F5
event 1 / 81 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDBoston vs Los Angeles D Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
BOS STARTER
Payton Tolle
GOOD- 5.1
- PROJECTED Ks
- 110
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
LAD STARTER
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
GOOD- 6.4
- PROJECTED Ks
- 110
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Yoshinobu Yamamoto grades good (Pitching+ 110) vs Payton Tolle grades good (Pitching+ 110)
BOS LINEUP
1Nick Sogardhit 56% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
2Ceddanne Rafaela (R)hit 62% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
3Wilyer Abreu (L)hit 57% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
4Willson Contreras (R)hit 61% · HR 19%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
5Masataka Yoshida (L)hit 56% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
6Caleb Durbin (R)hit 51% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
7Andruw Monasterio (R)hit 52% · HR 8%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
8Jarren Duran (L)hit 45% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
45%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
9Carlos Narváez (R)hit 46% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
22%
SCORES A RUN
LAD LINEUP
1Shohei Ohtani (L)hit 69% · HR 24%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
24%
HOME RUN
48%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
27%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
2Andy Pages (R)hit 64% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
3Miguel Rojas (R)hit 62% · HR 10%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
4Freddie Freeman (L)hit 65% · HR 16%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
5Mookie Betts (R)hit 56% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
6Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 59% · HR 12%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
7Kyle Tucker (L)hit 56% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
8Enrique Hernándezhit 54% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
9Eliezer Alfonzo (S)hit 54% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
BOS @ LAD · full-game reads
Moneyline
BOS to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
LAD F5
42%
Game Total
Over 8.5
38%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
39%
Run Line
LAD -1.5
33%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
37%
Team Total
LAD Over 4.5
35%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 7.77 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: BOS 3.93, LAD 3.84
- Payton Tolle (BOS) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Payton Tolle
BOS SP · vs. LAD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
58%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
48%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
18%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
41%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
28%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
- 58% to reach 5+ against LAD
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
78%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
63%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
18%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
96%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
81%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
66%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
52%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.4 strikeouts
- 78% to reach 5+ against BOS
Shohei Ohtani
LAD · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Payton Tolle
Willson Contreras
BOS · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Freddie Freeman
LAD · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Payton Tolle
Andy Pages
LAD · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Payton Tolle
Ceddanne Rafaela
BOS · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Miguel Rojas
LAD · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Payton Tolle
Wilyer Abreu
BOS · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Teoscar Hernández
LAD · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 3+ bases — 22% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Payton Tolle
Kyle Tucker
LAD · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Payton Tolle
Nick Sogard
BOS · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
- Batting 1
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Masataka Yoshida
BOS · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Mookie Betts
LAD · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Payton Tolle
Enrique Hernández
LAD · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
- Batting 8
- Facing Payton Tolle
Eliezer Alfonzo
LAD · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 60%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Facing Payton Tolle
Andruw Monasterio
BOS · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 60%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Caleb Durbin
BOS · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 60%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Carlos Narváez
BOS · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
48%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
22%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 60%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Jarren Duran
BOS · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
47%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 21% against 26%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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