AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDWSH vs ATL
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
Thursday, July 30, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the WSH @ ATL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
James Wood (L) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
James Wood in this spot
BATTER PROPS · JAMES WOOD
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
ATL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
ATL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL ATL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
ATL wins F5
event 1 / 83 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDWashington vs Atlanta Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
WSH STARTER
Foster Griffin
AVERAGE- 4.5
- PROJECTED Ks
- 98
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
ATL STARTER
Bryce Elder
SHAKY- 3.5
- PROJECTED Ks
- 93
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Bryce Elder grades poor (Pitching+ 93) vs Foster Griffin grades avg (Pitching+ 98)
WSH LINEUP
1James Wood (L)hit 70% · HR 32%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
32%
HOME RUN
53%
2+ BASES
41%
3+ BASES
35%
4+ BASES
44%
RBI
21%
2+ RBIs
62%
SCORES A RUN
2Luis García Jr. (L)hit 74% · HR 31%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
74%
1+ HIT
36%
2+ HITS
31%
HOME RUN
55%
2+ BASES
41%
3+ BASES
34%
4+ BASES
47%
RBI
24%
2+ RBIs
52%
SCORES A RUN
3Dylan Crews (R)hit 62% · HR 18%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
4CJ Abrams (L)hit 69% · HR 29%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
29%
HOME RUN
48%
2+ BASES
37%
3+ BASES
31%
4+ BASES
44%
RBI
22%
2+ RBIs
48%
SCORES A RUN
5Daylen Lile (L)hit 59% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
6Keibert Ruiz (S)hit 58% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
7José Tena (L)hit 58% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
8Jorbit Vivas (L)hit 54% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
9Nasim Nuñez (S)hit 53% · HR 3%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
3%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
5%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
4%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
ATL LINEUP
1Drake Baldwin (L)hit 73% · HR 29%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
73%
1+ HIT
37%
2+ HITS
29%
HOME RUN
52%
2+ BASES
38%
3+ BASES
31%
4+ BASES
42%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
58%
SCORES A RUN
2Ronald Acuña Jr.hit 69% · HR 19%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
54%
SCORES A RUN
3Matt Olson (L)hit 70% · HR 28%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
28%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
36%
3+ BASES
29%
4+ BASES
45%
RBI
23%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
4Michael Harris II (L)hit 69% · HR 20%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
5Ozzie Albies (S)hit 65% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
6Mauricio Dubón (R)hit 62% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
7Dominic Smith (L)hit 62% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
8Mike Yastrzemskihit 60% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
9Jim Jarvis (L)hit 58% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
WSH @ ATL · full-game reads
Moneyline
ATL to win
56%
1st 5 Innings
ATL F5
40%
Game Total
Over 8.5
61%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
64%
Run Line
ATL -1.5
34%
Team Total
WSH Over 4.5
51%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
54%
THE READ
ATL projects to outscore WSH by 0.25 runs across 300 trials.
- Projected runs: WSH 4.92, ATL 5.17
- Jake Irvin (WSH) vs Grant Holmes (ATL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Jake Irvin
WSH SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
13%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
43%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
31%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
- 22% to reach 5+ against ATL
Grant Holmes
ATL SP · vs. WSH
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
26%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
49%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
33%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
- 29% to reach 5+ against WSH
James Wood
WSH · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
35%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 35% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Grant Holmes
Matt Olson
ATL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Jake Irvin
Drake Baldwin
ATL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jake Irvin
Luis García Jr.
WSH · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 34% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Grant Holmes
Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 32% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jake Irvin
CJ Abrams
WSH · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Grant Holmes
Michael Harris II
ATL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Jake Irvin
Dylan Crews
WSH · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Grant Holmes
Ozzie Albies
ATL · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Facing Jake Irvin
Dominic Smith
ATL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jake Irvin
Mauricio Dubón
ATL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jake Irvin
Daylen Lile
WSH · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 65%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Grant Holmes
José Tena
WSH · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 65%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Grant Holmes
Keibert Ruiz
WSH · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 65%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Grant Holmes
Jorbit Vivas
WSH · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 65%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Grant Holmes
Mike Yastrzemski
ATL · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 65%.
- Batting 8
- Facing Jake Irvin
Jim Jarvis
ATL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 65%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Jake Irvin
Nasim Nuñez
WSH · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
17%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
3%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 65%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Grant Holmes
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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