AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDTEX vs TB
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
Thursday, July 30, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TEX @ TB simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
TEX Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
TEX Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · TEX LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
TB to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
TB -1.5
TEAM TOTAL TB
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
TB wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDTexas vs Tampa Bay Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
our sim and the sharpest books agree
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
TEX STARTER
Cole Winn
AVERAGE- 6.8
- PROJECTED Ks
- 99
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
TB STARTER
Shane McClanahan
AVERAGE- 4.3
- PROJECTED Ks
- 102
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.
Shane McClanahan grades avg (Pitching+ 102) vs Cole Winn grades avg (Pitching+ 99)
TEX LINEUP
1Wyatt Langfordhit 63% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
2Ezequiel Duran (R)hit 58% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
3Brandon Nimmo (L)hit 60% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
4Jake Burger (R)hit 58% · HR 17%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
5Justin Foscue (R)hit 57% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
6Cam Cauley (R)hit 52% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
7Nicky Lopez (L)hit 53% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
8Austin Wynnshit 47% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
9Alejandro Osuna (L)hit 51% · HR 5%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
17%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
TB LINEUP
1Yandy Díaz (R)hit 65% · HR 13%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
2Jonathan Aranda (L)hit 66% · HR 21%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
3Junior Caminero (R)hit 65% · HR 25%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
25%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
4Cedric Mullins (L)hit 55% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
5Jonny DeLuca (R)hit 57% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
6Victor Mesa Jr. (L)hit 57% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
7Ben Williamson (R)hit 53% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
8Taylor Walls (S)hit 51% · HR 5%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
9Hunter Feduccia (L)hit 52% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TEX @ TB · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
TB F5
47%
Game Total
Over 8.5
37%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
42%
Run Line
TB -1.5
37%
Team Total
TEX Over 4.5
32%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
36%
THE READ
TB projects to outscore TEX by 0.40 runs across 300 trials.
- Projected runs: TEX 3.48, TB 3.88
- Cole Winn (TEX) vs Shane McClanahan (TB)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Cole Winn
TEX SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
79%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
68%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
48%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
18%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
88%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
73%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
62%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.5 strikeouts
- 79% to reach 5+ against TB
Shane McClanahan
TB SP · vs. TEX
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
28%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
10%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
30%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
19%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
- 40% to reach 5+ against TEX
Junior Caminero
TB · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Cole Winn
Wyatt Langford
TEX · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Jonathan Aranda
TB · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 26% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Cole Winn
Yandy Díaz
TB · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Cole Winn
Justin Foscue
TEX · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Brandon Nimmo
TEX · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Jake Burger
TEX · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Victor Mesa Jr.
TB · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Cole Winn
Cedric Mullins
TB · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Cole Winn
Ezequiel Duran
TEX · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Ben Williamson
TB · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Cole Winn
Hunter Feduccia
TB · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Cole Winn
Cam Cauley
TEX · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
17%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
4%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Nicky Lopez
TEX · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
22%
Total Bases
3+ bases
8%
Total Bases
4+ bases
4%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Jonny DeLuca
TB · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 58%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Cole Winn
Taylor Walls
TB · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
49%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
10%
Total Bases
4+ bases
5%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 58%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Cole Winn
Austin Wynns
TEX · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
48%
Hits
2+ hits
9%
Total Bases
2+ bases
22%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 58%.
- Batting 8
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Alejandro Osuna
TEX · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
47%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
10%
Total Bases
4+ bases
5%
RBIs
1+ RBI
16%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
4%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 47% against 58%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Shane McClanahan
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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