AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSEA vs LAD
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday, July 30, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the SEA @ LAD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
SEA Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
SEA Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SEA LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
LAD to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
LAD -1.5
TEAM TOTAL LAD
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
LAD wins F5
event 1 / 13 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDSeattle vs Los Angeles D Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
SEA STARTER
Bryan Woo
GOOD- 4.9
- PROJECTED Ks
- 114
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
LAD STARTER
Roki Sasaki
GOOD- 6.3
- PROJECTED Ks
- 110
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.
Roki Sasaki grades good (Pitching+ 110) vs Bryan Woo grades good (Pitching+ 114)
SEA LINEUP
1Cole Young (L)hit 60% · HR 13%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
2Randy Arozarena (R)hit 62% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
3Dominic Canzone (L)hit 67% · HR 29%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
29%
HOME RUN
49%
2+ BASES
36%
3+ BASES
30%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
4Julio Rodríguezhit 59% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
5Josh Naylor (L)hit 56% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
6Cal Raleigh (S)hit 47% · HR 14%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
7Luke Raley (L)hit 59% · HR 25%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
25%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
8Weston Wilson (R)hit 53% · HR 17%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
9Colt Emerson (L)hit 46% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
LAD LINEUP
1Tommy Edman (S)hit 65% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
2Andy Pages (R)hit 63% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
3Freddie Freeman (L)hit 67% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
4Max Muncy (L)hit 61% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
5Mookie Betts (R)hit 58% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
6Kyle Tucker (L)hit 56% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
7Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 57% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
8Dalton Rushing (L)hit 58% · HR 19%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
9Enrique Hernándezhit 52% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
SEA @ LAD · full-game reads
Moneyline
LAD to win
53%
1st 5 Innings
LAD F5
48%
Game Total
Over 8.5
43%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
46%
Run Line
LAD -1.5
38%
Team Total
SEA Over 4.5
40%
Team Total
LAD Over 4.5
40%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.37 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: SEA 4.07, LAD 4.30
- Bryan Woo (SEA) vs Roki Sasaki (LAD)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Bryan Woo
SEA SP · vs. LAD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
66%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
8%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
90%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
53%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
66%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
50%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
- 66% to reach 5+ against LAD
Roki Sasaki
LAD SP · vs. SEA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
78%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
67%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
53%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
28%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
74%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
53%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
49%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
36%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.8 strikeouts
- 78% to reach 5+ against SEA
Dominic Canzone
SEA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Roki Sasaki
Freddie Freeman
LAD · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Bryan Woo
Dalton Rushing
LAD · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Bryan Woo
Max Muncy
LAD · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Bryan Woo
Mookie Betts
LAD · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Bryan Woo
Julio Rodríguez
SEA · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4
- Facing Roki Sasaki
Luke Raley
SEA · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Roki Sasaki
Andy Pages
LAD · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Bryan Woo
Tommy Edman
LAD · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Facing Bryan Woo
Randy Arozarena
SEA · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Roki Sasaki
Teoscar Hernández
LAD · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Bryan Woo
Josh Naylor
SEA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Roki Sasaki
Cole Young
SEA · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Roki Sasaki
Weston Wilson
SEA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Roki Sasaki
Cal Raleigh
SEA · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
49%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 49%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Roki Sasaki
Kyle Tucker
LAD · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Bryan Woo
Enrique Hernández
LAD · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
- Batting 9
- Facing Bryan Woo
Colt Emerson
SEA · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
44%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 2+ RBIs at 9% against 11%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Roki Sasaki
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.