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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

PIT vs CIN

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

Thursday, July 30, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the PIT @ CIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

PITTSBURGHPIT
0·0
CINCINNATICIN
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PIT DUGOUTCIN DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Jake Mangum (L) vs HP

FB94.1
FB92.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Jake Mangum in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · JAKE MANGUM

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CIN to win

63%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CIN wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYJake Mangum at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 87 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati Winner?

64%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEPIT

PIT STARTER

Paul Skenes

GOOD
6.5
PROJECTED Ks
106
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 41% · 30% whiffSweeper · 16% · 29% whiffChangeup · 15% · 38% whiff

CIN STARTER

Hunter Greene

AVERAGE
5.9
PROJECTED Ks
104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 52% · 15% whiffSlider · 33% · 49% whiff

Hunter Greene grades avg (Pitching+ 104) vs Paul Skenes grades good (Pitching+ 106)

PIT LINEUP

  1. 1Jake Mangum (S)hit 73% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brandon Lowe (L)hit 73% · HR 31%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    38%

    2+ HITS

    31%

    HOME RUN

    55%

    2+ BASES

    41%

    3+ BASES

    34%

    4+ BASES

    47%

    RBI

    24%

    2+ RBIs

    60%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryan Reynolds (S)hit 71% · HR 21%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    50%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    42%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Esmerlyn Valdez (R)hit 74% · HR 33%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    33%

    HOME RUN

    55%

    2+ BASES

    43%

    3+ BASES

    36%

    4+ BASES

    51%

    RBI

    28%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Ryan O'Hearn (L)hit 70% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nick Gonzales (R)hit 72% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    36%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Endy Rodríguez (S)hit 67% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jacob Gonzalez (L)hit 65% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jhostynxon Garciahit 62% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

CIN LINEUP

  1. 1Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 70% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Sal Stewart (R)hit 69% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3JJ Bleday (L)hit 64% · HR 21%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Tyler Stephenson (R)hit 64% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nathaniel Lowe (L)hit 59% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 58% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Dane Myershit 59% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Noelvi Marte (R)hit 55% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Matt McLain (R)hit 51% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

PIT CIN

Game Markets

PIT @ CIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

60%

1st 5 Innings

CIN F5

33%

Game Total

Over 8.5

68%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

67%

Run Line

CIN -1.5

26%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

64%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

53%

THE READ

PIT projects to outscore CIN by 1.34 runs across 300 trials.

  • Projected runs: PIT 6.37, CIN 5.03
  • Yohan Ramírez (PIT) vs Rhett Lowder (CIN)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
YR

Yohan Ramírez

PIT SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

81%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

23%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

62%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

23%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.7 strikeouts
  • 81% to reach 5+ against CIN
RL

Rhett Lowder

CIN SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

51%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

20%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

71%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

60%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 25% to reach 5+ against PIT
BL

Brandon Lowe

PIT · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

34%

Hits

1+ hits

80%

Hits

2+ hits

43%

Total Bases

2+ bases

60%

Total Bases

3+ bases

47%

Total Bases

4+ bases

38%

RBIs

1+ RBI

49%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

27%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 34% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
EV

Esmerlyn Valdez

PIT · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

42%

Total Bases

2+ bases

61%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

49%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
EC

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Yohan Ramírez
BR

Bryan Reynolds

PIT · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

41%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 41% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
SS

Sal Stewart

CIN · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 28% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Yohan Ramírez
RO

Ryan O'Hearn

PIT · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 46% against 36% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
JM

Jake Mangum

PIT · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
JB

JJ Bleday

CIN · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Yohan Ramírez
NG

Nick Gonzales

PIT · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
ER

Endy Rodríguez

PIT · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ hits — 74% against 68% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
ES

Eugenio Suárez

CIN · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Yohan Ramírez
JG

Jhostynxon Garcia

PIT · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.

  • Batting 9
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
TS

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Yohan Ramírez
JG

Jacob Gonzalez

PIT · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 68%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Rhett Lowder
NL

Nathaniel Lowe

CIN · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 33% against 36%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Yohan Ramírez
DM

Dane Myers

CIN · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 68%.

  • Batting 7
  • Facing Yohan Ramírez
NM

Noelvi Marte

CIN · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 68%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Yohan Ramírez
MM

Matt McLain

CIN · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 68%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Yohan Ramírez

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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