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NYY vs CWS

New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox

Thursday, July 30, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the NYY @ CWS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

NEW YORKNYY
0·0
CHICAGOCWS
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

NYY DUGOUTCWS DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

NYY Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB92.6
FB93.3
FB93.1
CV74.9
FB94.2

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

NYY Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · NYY LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CWS to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CWS -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CWS

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CWS wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYNYY Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 20 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGENYY
LINEUP EDGENYY

NYY STARTER

Ryan Weathers

GOOD
6.1
PROJECTED Ks
110
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 26% · 21% whiffChangeup · 25% · 36% whiffSweeper · 20% · 42% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball, Sinker are getting hit hard lately.

CWS STARTER

Sean Burke

AVERAGE
6.8
PROJECTED Ks
101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 37% · 27% whiffCurveball · 21% · 27% whiffSlider · 18% · 32% whiff

Sean Burke grades avg (Pitching+ 101) vs Ryan Weathers grades good (Pitching+ 110)

NYY LINEUP

  1. 1Trent Grisham (L)hit 66% · HR 15%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Ben Rice (L)hit 70% · HR 29%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    52%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jasson Domínguez (S)hit 61% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Paul Goldschmidt (R)hit 65% · HR 18%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Spencer Joneshit 60% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)hit 59% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Anthony Volpe (R)hit 58% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Ryan McMahon (L)hit 57% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Austin Wells (L)hit 52% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

CWS LINEUP

  1. 1Chase Meidroth (R)hit 61% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Munetaka Murakamihit 62% · HR 24%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Miguel Vargas (R)hit 61% · HR 22%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Randal Grichuk (R)hit 59% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Colson Montgomery (L)hit 54% · HR 16%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Everson Pereirahit 56% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Braden Montgomery (S)hit 56% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Luisangel Acuña (R)hit 52% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Edgar Querohit 45% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    45%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

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169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

NYY CWS

Game Markets

NYY @ CWS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

CWS F5

39%

Game Total

Over 8.5

42%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

39%

Run Line

CWS -1.5

31%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

37%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore CWS by 0.78 runs across 300 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYY 4.60, CWS 3.82
  • Ryan Weathers (NYY) vs Sean Burke (CWS)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
RW

Ryan Weathers

NYY SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

25%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

35%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.7 strikeouts
  • 83% to reach 5+ against CWS
SB

Sean Burke

CWS SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

86%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

17%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

58%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.6 strikeouts
  • 86% to reach 5+ against NYY
BR

Ben Rice

NYY · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

33%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

44%

Total Bases

4+ bases

37%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sean Burke
MM

Munetaka Murakami

CWS · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ryan Weathers
MV

Miguel Vargas

CWS · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Ryan Weathers
PG

Paul Goldschmidt

NYY · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sean Burke
TG

Trent Grisham

NYY · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Sean Burke
RM

Ryan McMahon

NYY · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sean Burke
RG

Randal Grichuk

CWS · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ryan Weathers
CM

Colson Montgomery

CWS · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ryan Weathers
CM

Chase Meidroth

CWS · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ryan Weathers
JJ

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Sean Burke
JD

Jasson Domínguez

NYY · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Facing Sean Burke
EP

Everson Pereira

CWS · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.

  • Batting 6
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ryan Weathers
SJ

Spencer Jones

NYY · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 5
  • Facing Sean Burke
AV

Anthony Volpe

NYY · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sean Burke
BM

Braden Montgomery

CWS · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Facing Ryan Weathers
LA

Luisangel Acuña

CWS · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

5%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

2%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Ryan Weathers
AW

Austin Wells

NYY · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 26% against 28%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sean Burke
EQ

Edgar Quero

CWS · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

19%

Total Bases

3+ bases

8%

Total Bases

4+ bases

5%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 61%.

  • Batting 9
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ryan Weathers

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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