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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

MIA vs NYM

Miami Marlins at New York Mets

Thursday, July 30, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIA @ NYM simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MIAMIMIA
0·0
NEW YORKNYM
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

MIA DUGOUTNYM DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

MIA Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB92
CV79.1
CV78.2
SL85.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

MIA Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · MIA LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

NYM to win

37%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

NYM -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL NYM

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

NYM wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYMIA Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 20 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Miami vs New York M Winner?

63%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEMIA
LINEUP EDGEMIA

MIA STARTER

Janson Junk

GOOD
2.8
PROJECTED Ks
110
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 36% · 12% whiffSlider · 21% · 17% whiffChangeup · 19% · 31% whiff

NYM STARTER

Freddy Peralta

AVERAGE
5.2
PROJECTED Ks
101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 53% · 22% whiffChangeup · 21% · 28% whiffCurveball · 15% · 36% whiff

Freddy Peralta grades avg (Pitching+ 101) vs Janson Junk grades good (Pitching+ 110)

MIA LINEUP

  1. 1Liam Hicks (L)hit 63% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Xavier Edwards (S)hit 64% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Otto Lopez (R)hit 67% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Kyle Stowers (L)hit 63% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Heriberto Hernández (R)hit 63% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Griffin Conine (L)hit 64% · HR 24%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jakob Marsee (L)hit 48% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Graham Pauleyhit 53% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Joe Mack (L)hit 56% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

NYM LINEUP

  1. 1A.J. Ewing (L)hit 60% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Francisco Lindor (S)hit 61% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bo Bichette (R)hit 60% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Carson Benge (L)hit 59% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Luis Robert Jr.hit 55% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Brett Baty (L)hit 54% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Marcus Semienhit 50% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jorge Polancohit 49% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Francisco Alvarez (R)hit 57% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIA NYM

Game Markets

MIA @ NYM · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIA to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

NYM F5

39%

Game Total

Over 8.5

41%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

42%

Run Line

NYM -1.5

28%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

34%

THE READ

MIA projects to outscore NYM by 0.76 runs across 300 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIA 4.40, NYM 3.64
  • Eury Pérez (MIA) vs Nolan McLean (NYM)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
EP

Eury Pérez

MIA SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

17%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

33%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.6 strikeouts
  • 83% to reach 5+ against NYM
NM

Nolan McLean

NYM SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

74%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.2 strikeouts
  • 79% to reach 5+ against MIA
KS

Kyle Stowers

MIA · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Nolan McLean
GC

Griffin Conine

MIA · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Nolan McLean
HH

Heriberto Hernández

MIA · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Nolan McLean
FA

Francisco Alvarez

NYM · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Eury Pérez
OL

Otto Lopez

MIA · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Nolan McLean
JM

Joe Mack

MIA · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Nolan McLean
XE

Xavier Edwards

MIA · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Facing Nolan McLean
BB

Bo Bichette

NYM · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ hits — 71% against 62% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Eury Pérez
CB

Carson Benge

NYM · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 31% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Eury Pérez
BB

Brett Baty

NYM · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Eury Pérez
FL

Francisco Lindor

NYM · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Facing Eury Pérez
AE

A.J. Ewing

NYM · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Eury Pérez
LH

Liam Hicks

MIA · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Nolan McLean
LJ

Luis Robert Jr.

NYM · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 5
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Eury Pérez
MS

Marcus Semien

NYM · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 25% against 28%.

  • Batting 7
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Eury Pérez
JP

Jorge Polanco

NYM · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 62%.

  • Batting 8
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Eury Pérez
JM

Jakob Marsee

MIA · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

9%

Total Bases

4+ bases

5%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 62%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Nolan McLean
GP

Graham Pauley

MIA · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 62%.

  • Batting 8
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Nolan McLean

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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