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AI MODEL READ

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KC vs MIN

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins

Thursday, July 30, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the KC @ MIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

KANSAS CITYKC
0·0
MINNESOTAMIN
TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

KC DUGOUTMIN DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

KC Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL84
CH82.7
CH84.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

KC Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · KC LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

MIN to win

43%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

MIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL MIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

MIN wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYKC Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 21 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Kansas City vs Minnesota Winner?

57%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEKC
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

KC STARTER

Noah Cameron

AVERAGE
4.9
PROJECTED Ks
103
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 17% whiffChangeup · 21% · 34% whiffCutter · 21% · 23% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

MIN STARTER

Bailey Ober

SHAKY
2.9
PROJECTED Ks
87
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Changeup · 36% · 23% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 32% · 16% whiffSlider · 16% · 11% whiff

Bailey Ober grades poor (Pitching+ 87) vs Noah Cameron grades avg (Pitching+ 103)

KC LINEUP

  1. 1Carter Jensen (L)hit 64% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2John Ravehit 65% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jac Caglianone (L)hit 69% · HR 22%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Salvador Perez (R)hit 61% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Michael Massey (L)hit 62% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nick Loftin (R)hit 57% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Isaac Collins (S)hit 56% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Josh Rojas (L)hit 57% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Tyler Tolbert (R)hit 61% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

MIN LINEUP

  1. 1Austin Martin (R)hit 62% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Ryan Jeffershit 68% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Royce Lewis (R)hit 62% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Josh Bell (S)hit 65% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Kody Clemens (L)hit 65% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Luke Keaschall (R)hit 59% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Brooks Lee (S)hit 58% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Alex Jackson (R)hit 63% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ryan Kreidler (R)hit 55% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

KC MIN

Game Markets

KC @ MIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIN to win

60%

1st 5 Innings

MIN F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

51%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

MIN -1.5

38%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

MIN projects to outscore KC by 0.58 runs across 300 trials.

  • Projected runs: KC 4.35, MIN 4.93
  • Noah Cameron (KC) vs Bailey Ober (MIN)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
NC

Noah Cameron

KC SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

90%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

72%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

76%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

67%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 64% to reach 5+ against MIN
BO

Bailey Ober

MIN SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

68%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
  • 14% to reach 5+ against KC
KC

Kody Clemens

MIN · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Noah Cameron
JC

Jac Caglianone

KC · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Bailey Ober
RJ

Ryan Jeffers

MIN · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Noah Cameron
JB

Josh Bell

MIN · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Facing Noah Cameron
CJ

Carter Jensen

KC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 30% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Bailey Ober
SP

Salvador Perez

KC · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Bailey Ober
RL

Royce Lewis

MIN · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 37% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Noah Cameron
AJ

Alex Jackson

MIN · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ bases — 45% against 40% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Noah Cameron
AM

Austin Martin

MIN · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Noah Cameron
BL

Brooks Lee

MIN · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Noah Cameron
MM

Michael Massey

KC · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Bailey Ober
JR

John Rave

KC · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 2
  • Facing Bailey Ober
TT

Tyler Tolbert

KC · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Bailey Ober
NL

Nick Loftin

KC · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Bailey Ober
RK

Ryan Kreidler

MIN · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Noah Cameron
LK

Luke Keaschall

MIN · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 66%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Noah Cameron
IC

Isaac Collins

KC · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 66%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Bailey Ober
JR

Josh Rojas

KC · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Bailey Ober

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.