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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

CHC vs STL

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals

Thursday, July 30, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CHC @ STL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CHICAGOCHC
0·0
ST. LOUISSTL
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

CHC DUGOUTSTL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

CHC Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.6
SL84.2
FB95.6
CV78.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

CHC Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · CHC LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

STL to win

34%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

STL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL STL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

STL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCHC Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 15 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Chicago C vs St. Louis Winner?

66%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

CHC Over 4.5 runs

46%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 34-for-98 (.347) with 4 HR vs. this starter, career

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

CHC STARTER

Javier Assad

AVERAGE
2.2
PROJECTED Ks
103
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 42% · 8% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 19% · 13% whiffCutter · 14% · 14% whiff

STL STARTER

Andre Pallante

AVERAGE
3.4
PROJECTED Ks
104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 31% · 14% whiffSlider · 30% · 31% whiffSinker · 19% · 12% whiff

Andre Pallante grades avg (Pitching+ 104) vs Javier Assad grades avg (Pitching+ 103)

CHC LINEUP

  1. 1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)hit 74% · HR 25%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    54%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Seiya Suzuki (R)hit 71% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    50%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Michael Busch (L)hit 66% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Alex Bregman (R)hit 62% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Ian Happ (S)hit 65% · HR 17%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nico Hoerner (R)hit 58% · HR 4%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Michael Conforto (L)hit 64% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Carson Kelly (R)hit 57% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Dansby Swanson (R)hit 57% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

STL LINEUP

  1. 1JJ Wetherholt (L)hit 66% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jordan Walker (R)hit 74% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    52%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    53%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Alec Burleson (L)hit 71% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Iván Herrera (R)hit 64% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Lars Nootbaar (L)hit 65% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Masyn Winn (R)hit 61% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Bryan Torres (L)hit 64% · HR 16%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Blaze Jordan (R)hit 57% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Nathan Church (L)hit 54% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CHC STL

Game Markets

CHC @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CHC to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

64%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

63%

Run Line

STL -1.5

34%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

56%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

52%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 10.33 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: CHC 5.29, STL 5.04
  • Javier Assad (CHC) vs Andre Pallante (STL)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
JA

Javier Assad

CHC SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

36%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

5%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.2 strikeouts
  • 7% to reach 5+ against STL
AP

Andre Pallante

STL SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

51%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

55%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 29% to reach 5+ against CHC
PC

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

42%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

44%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andre Pallante
JW

Jordan Walker

STL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

43%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Javier Assad
SS

Seiya Suzuki

CHC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andre Pallante
AB

Alec Burleson

STL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Javier Assad
MC

Michael Conforto

CHC · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Andre Pallante
IH

Ian Happ

CHC · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andre Pallante
LN

Lars Nootbaar

STL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Javier Assad
MB

Michael Busch

CHC · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 39% against 34% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Andre Pallante
MW

Masyn Winn

STL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Javier Assad
JW

JJ Wetherholt

STL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Javier Assad
BT

Bryan Torres

STL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Javier Assad
IH

Iván Herrera

STL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Javier Assad
BJ

Blaze Jordan

STL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Javier Assad
AB

Alex Bregman

CHC · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andre Pallante
CK

Carson Kelly

CHC · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 68%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Andre Pallante
NH

Nico Hoerner

CHC · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 68%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Andre Pallante
DS

Dansby Swanson

CHC · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 68%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Andre Pallante
NC

Nathan Church

STL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 29% against 34%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Javier Assad

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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