AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDTOR vs WSH
Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TOR @ WSH simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
TOR Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
TOR Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · TOR LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
WSH to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
WSH -1.5
TEAM TOTAL WSH
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
WSH wins F5
event 1 / 15 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME TOTAL
✓ CONFIRMEDTOR Over 4.5 runs
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 15-for-42 (.357) with 4 HR vs. this starter, career · 81°F, 14mph wind
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
TOR STARTER
Trey Yesavage
AVERAGE- 5.4
- PROJECTED Ks
- 97
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
WSH STARTER
Zack Littell
SHAKY- 2.5
- PROJECTED Ks
- 85
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.
Zack Littell grades poor (Pitching+ 85) vs Trey Yesavage grades avg (Pitching+ 97)
TOR LINEUP
1Yohendrick Piñango (L)hit 75% · HR 19%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
75%
1+ HIT
38%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
51%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
52%
SCORES A RUN
2Nathan Lukes (L)hit 71% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
48%
SCORES A RUN
3Kazuma Okamoto (R)hit 74% · HR 34%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
74%
1+ HIT
38%
2+ HITS
34%
HOME RUN
56%
2+ BASES
43%
3+ BASES
36%
4+ BASES
48%
RBI
26%
2+ RBIs
55%
SCORES A RUN
4George Springerhit 71% · HR 23%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
48%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
5Alejandro Kirk (R)hit 65% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
6Daulton Varsho (L)hit 68% · HR 14%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
7Ernie Clement (R)hit 69% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
8Andrés Giménez (L)hit 61% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
9Davis Schneiderhit 61% · HR 15%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
WSH LINEUP
1James Wood (L)hit 61% · HR 23%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
52%
SCORES A RUN
2Luis García Jr. (L)hit 65% · HR 22%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
3Brady Househit 57% · HR 13%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
4CJ Abrams (L)hit 61% · HR 21%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
5Harry Fordhit 53% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
6Daylen Lile (L)hit 55% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
7Jacob Young (R)hit 52% · HR 10%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
8Jorbit Vivas (L)hit 51% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
9Nasim Nuñez (S)hit 49% · HR 4%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
4%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
9%
3+ BASES
4%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
4%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TOR @ WSH · full-game reads
Moneyline
TOR to win
60%
1st 5 Innings
WSH F5
33%
Game Total
Over 8.5
58%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
61%
Run Line
WSH -1.5
24%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
57%
Team Total
WSH Over 4.5
40%
THE READ
TOR projects to outscore WSH by 1.44 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: TOR 5.60, WSH 4.16
- Trey Yesavage (TOR) vs Zack Littell (WSH)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Trey Yesavage
TOR SP · vs. WSH
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
63%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
8%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
48%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
14%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
37%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
24%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
- 63% to reach 5+ against WSH
Zack Littell
WSH SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
87%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
43%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
77%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
65%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.5 strikeouts
- 9% to reach 5+ against TOR
Kazuma Okamoto
TOR · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
34%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 34% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Zack Littell
Yohendrick Piñango
TOR · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 40% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Zack Littell
George Springer
TOR · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Zack Littell
James Wood
WSH · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Luis García Jr.
WSH · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Nathan Lukes
TOR · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Zack Littell
CJ Abrams
WSH · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Ernie Clement
TOR · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Zack Littell
Daulton Varsho
TOR · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Zack Littell
Alejandro Kirk
TOR · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Zack Littell
Davis Schneider
TOR · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 9
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Zack Littell
Andrés Giménez
TOR · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Zack Littell
Brady House
WSH · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 30% against 32%.
- Batting 3
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Daylen Lile
WSH · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 65%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Harry Ford
WSH · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 65%.
- Batting 5
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Jacob Young
WSH · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 65%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Jorbit Vivas
WSH · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 65%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Nasim Nuñez
WSH · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
22%
Total Bases
3+ bases
9%
Total Bases
4+ bases
5%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
4%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 65%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Trey Yesavage
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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