AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDTEX vs TB
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TEX @ TB simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
TEX Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
TEX Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · TEX LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
TB to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
TB -1.5
TEAM TOTAL TB
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
TB wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDTexas vs Tampa Bay Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
our sim and the sharpest books agree
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
TEX STARTER
Cole Winn
AVERAGE- 5.3
- PROJECTED Ks
- 99
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
TB STARTER
Shane McClanahan
AVERAGE- 4.3
- PROJECTED Ks
- 102
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.
Shane McClanahan grades avg (Pitching+ 102) vs Cole Winn grades avg (Pitching+ 99)
TEX LINEUP
1Wyatt Langfordhit 66% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
2Ezequiel Duran (R)hit 61% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
3Brandon Nimmo (L)hit 65% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
4Jake Burger (R)hit 60% · HR 16%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
5Nicky Lopez (L)hit 59% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
6Cam Cauley (R)hit 58% · HR 12%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
7Alejandro Osuna (L)hit 54% · HR 5%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
8Justin Foscue (R)hit 55% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
9Elias Díaz (R)hit 54% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
TB LINEUP
1Yandy Díaz (R)hit 61% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
2Jonathan Aranda (L)hit 61% · HR 12%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
3Junior Caminero (R)hit 65% · HR 23%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
4Ryan Vilade (R)hit 59% · HR 14%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
5Jonny DeLuca (R)hit 52% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
6Chandler Simpson (L)hit 57% · HR 5%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
7Ben Williamson (R)hit 52% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
8Nick Fortes (R)hit 55% · HR 7%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
9Taylor Walls (S)hit 44% · HR 4%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
44%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
4%
HOME RUN
19%
2+ BASES
8%
3+ BASES
4%
4+ BASES
16%
RBI
4%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
Every bat, graded by the sim.
Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/moIII · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
TEX @ TB · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
TB F5
44%
Game Total
Over 8.5
38%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
44%
Run Line
TB -1.5
35%
Team Total
TEX Over 4.5
35%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
36%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 7.73 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: TEX 3.81, TB 3.93
- Cole Winn (TEX) vs Shane McClanahan (TB)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Cole Winn
TEX SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
61%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
44%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
8%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
72%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
34%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
51%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
37%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
- 61% to reach 5+ against TB
Shane McClanahan
TB SP · vs. TEX
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
44%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
41%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
2%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
38%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
24%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
- 44% to reach 5+ against TEX
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.