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AI MODEL READ

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SEA vs LAD

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SEA @ LAD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SEATTLESEA
0·0
LOS ANGELESLAD
TOP 11-00 OUT

FIELD

SEA DUGOUTLAD DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

SEA Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94
FB93.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

SEA Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · SEA LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

LAD to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

LAD -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL LAD

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

LAD wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYSEA Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 16 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESEA
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

SEA STARTER

Bryan Woo

GOOD
5.2
PROJECTED Ks
114
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 47% · 26% whiffSinker · 18% · 12% whiffSlider · 15% · 31% whiff

LAD STARTER

Roki Sasaki

GOOD
6.1
PROJECTED Ks
110
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 43% · 20% whiffSplit-Finger · 36% · 36% whiffSlider · 22% · 40% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Roki Sasaki grades good (Pitching+ 110) vs Bryan Woo grades good (Pitching+ 114)

SEA LINEUP

  1. 1Cole Young (L)hit 67% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Randy Arozarena (R)hit 70% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    52%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Julio Rodríguezhit 68% · HR 27%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Dominic Canzone (L)hit 72% · HR 35%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    35%

    HOME RUN

    55%

    2+ BASES

    43%

    3+ BASES

    37%

    4+ BASES

    50%

    RBI

    27%

    2+ RBIs

    53%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Cal Raleigh (S)hit 61% · HR 17%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Josh Naylor (L)hit 63% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Rob Refsnyderhit 59% · HR 18%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Weston Wilson (R)hit 64% · HR 19%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Colt Emerson (L)hit 56% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

LAD LINEUP

  1. 1Shohei Ohtani (L)hit 72% · HR 29%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    38%

    3+ BASES

    31%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    55%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Andy Pages (R)hit 65% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Freddie Freeman (L)hit 70% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Max Muncy (L)hit 65% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Tommy Edman (S)hit 66% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Mookie Betts (R)hit 59% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Kyle Tucker (L)hit 57% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 59% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Dalton Rushing (L)hit 61% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SEA LAD

Game Markets

SEA @ LAD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SEA to win

48%

1st 5 Innings

LAD F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

40%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

43%

Run Line

LAD -1.5

33%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

37%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

37%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 7.86 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: SEA 3.94, LAD 3.92
  • Bryan Woo (SEA) vs Roki Sasaki (LAD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BW

Bryan Woo

SEA SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

82%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

39%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 61% to reach 5+ against LAD
RS

Roki Sasaki

LAD SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

57%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

17%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

64%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

36%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

29%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
  • 72% to reach 5+ against SEA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.