AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDPHI vs MIA
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the PHI @ MIA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
PHI Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
PHI Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · PHI LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIA to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIA -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIA
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIA wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDPhiladelphia vs Miami Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical
GAME TOTAL
✓ CONFIRMEDPHI Over 4.5 runs
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 6-for-15 (.400) with 1 HR vs. this starter, career · pitcher-friendly park
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
PHI STARTER
Jesús Luzardo
GOOD- 8.3
- PROJECTED Ks
- 113
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
MIA STARTER
Ryan Gusto
SHAKY- 3.0
- PROJECTED Ks
- 94
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Ryan Gusto grades poor (Pitching+ 94) vs Jesús Luzardo grades good (Pitching+ 113)
PHI LINEUP
1Trea Turner (R)hit 66% · HR 13%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
2Bryson Stott (L)hit 63% · HR 9%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
3Bryce Harper (L)hit 67% · HR 22%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
4Alec Bohm (R)hit 59% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
5J.T. Realmuto (R)hit 59% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
6Brandon Marsh (L)hit 65% · HR 16%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
7Bryan De La Cruzhit 60% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
8Justin Crawford (L)hit 57% · HR 4%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
4%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
9Edmundo Sosa (R)hit 55% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
MIA LINEUP
1Otto Lopez (R)hit 60% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
2Heriberto Hernández (R)hit 54% · HR 16%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
3Liam Hicks (L)hit 50% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
21%
SCORES A RUN
4Xavier Edwards (S)hit 52% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
5Javier Sanoja (R)hit 51% · HR 4%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
4%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
23%
SCORES A RUN
6Kyle Stowers (L)hit 46% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
23%
SCORES A RUN
7Esteury Ruiz (R)hit 46% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
8Brian Navarreto (R)hit 44% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
44%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
21%
SCORES A RUN
9Jakob Marsee (L)hit 37% · HR 4%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
37%
1+ HIT
7%
2+ HITS
4%
HOME RUN
15%
2+ BASES
7%
3+ BASES
4%
4+ BASES
13%
RBI
3%
2+ RBIs
21%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
PHI @ MIA · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
66%
1st 5 Innings
MIA F5
26%
Game Total
Over 8.5
33%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
35%
Run Line
MIA -1.5
18%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
42%
Team Total
MIA Over 4.5
20%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore MIA by 1.62 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: PHI 4.33, MIA 2.70
- Jesús Luzardo (PHI) vs Ryan Gusto (MIA)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Jesús Luzardo
PHI SP · vs. MIA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
95%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
88%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
76%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
61%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
46%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
96%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
64%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
38%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
24%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 8.3 strikeouts
- 95% to reach 5+ against MIA
Ryan Gusto
MIA SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
23%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
2%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
41%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
27%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
- 17% to reach 5+ against PHI
Bryce Harper
PHI · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Ryan Gusto
Heriberto Hernández
MIA · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Brandon Marsh
PHI · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Gusto
Trea Turner
PHI · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Gusto
Bryson Stott
PHI · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Gusto
Bryan De La Cruz
PHI · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7
- Facing Ryan Gusto
Alec Bohm
PHI · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Gusto
Otto Lopez
MIA · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Edmundo Sosa
PHI · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 10% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Gusto
J.T. Realmuto
PHI · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 22% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Gusto
Esteury Ruiz
MIA · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
49%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 49%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Justin Crawford
PHI · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Gusto
Xavier Edwards
MIA · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 58%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Javier Sanoja
MIA · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 58%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Liam Hicks
MIA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 58%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Kyle Stowers
MIA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
48%
Hits
2+ hits
11%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 9% against 10%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Brian Navarreto
MIA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
46%
Hits
2+ hits
10%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 58%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
Jakob Marsee
MIA · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
39%
Hits
2+ hits
7%
Total Bases
2+ bases
16%
Total Bases
3+ bases
7%
Total Bases
4+ bases
4%
RBIs
1+ RBI
14%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
4%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 39% against 58%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jesús Luzardo
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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