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NYY vs CWS

New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the NYY @ CWS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

NEW YORKNYY
0·0
CHICAGOCWS
TOP 11-00 OUT

FIELD

NYY DUGOUTCWS DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

NYY Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93
CV76
FB93.4

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

NYY Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · NYY LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CWS to win

30%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CWS -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CWS

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CWS wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYNYY Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

New York Y vs Chicago WS Winner?

70%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

GAME TOTAL

✓ CONFIRMED

NYY Over 4.5 runs

39%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 15-for-44 (.341) with 4 HR vs. this starter, career · 79°F, 10mph wind

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGENYY
LINEUP EDGENYY

NYY STARTER

Ryan Weathers

GOOD
5.8
PROJECTED Ks
110
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 26% · 21% whiffChangeup · 25% · 36% whiffSweeper · 20% · 42% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball, Sinker are getting hit hard lately.

CWS STARTER

Sean Burke

AVERAGE
6.0
PROJECTED Ks
101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 37% · 27% whiffCurveball · 21% · 27% whiffSlider · 18% · 32% whiff

Sean Burke grades avg (Pitching+ 101) vs Ryan Weathers grades good (Pitching+ 110)

NYY LINEUP

  1. 1Trent Grisham (L)hit 65% · HR 17%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Ben Rice (L)hit 72% · HR 31%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    36%

    2+ HITS

    31%

    HOME RUN

    54%

    2+ BASES

    41%

    3+ BASES

    34%

    4+ BASES

    45%

    RBI

    22%

    2+ RBIs

    52%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jasson Domínguez (S)hit 62% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Paul Goldschmidt (R)hit 65% · HR 18%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Spencer Joneshit 59% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)hit 62% · HR 17%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Ryan McMahon (L)hit 61% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8José Caballero (R)hit 56% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Austin Wells (L)hit 51% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

CWS LINEUP

  1. 1Sam Antonacci (L)hit 62% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Munetaka Murakamihit 62% · HR 25%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Miguel Vargas (R)hit 58% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Colson Montgomery (L)hit 55% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Andrew Benintendi (L)hit 55% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Braden Montgomery (S)hit 57% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Tristan Peters (L)hit 55% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Chase Meidroth (R)hit 52% · HR 6%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Drew Romo (S)hit 41% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    41%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    18%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    21%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYY CWS

Game Markets

NYY @ CWS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

CWS F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

42%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

44%

Run Line

CWS -1.5

27%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

32%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore CWS by 0.87 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYY 4.47, CWS 3.60
  • Ryan Weathers (NYY) vs Sean Burke (CWS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RW

Ryan Weathers

NYY SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

73%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

54%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
  • 73% to reach 5+ against CWS
SB

Sean Burke

CWS SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

75%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

98%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

60%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

67%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

53%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 6.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 6.0 strikeouts
  • 75% to reach 5+ against NYY

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.