AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDMIL vs SF
Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the MIL @ SF simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
MIL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
MIL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · MIL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
SF to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
SF -1.5
TEAM TOTAL SF
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
SF wins F5
event 1 / 17 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDMilwaukee vs San Francisco Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
MIL STARTER
Thomas Pannone
- 2.8
- PROJECTED Ks
- —
- PITCHING+
SF STARTER
Logan Webb
GOOD- 4.0
- PROJECTED Ks
- 105
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Logan Webb grades good (Pitching+ 105) vs Thomas Pannone projects 2.8 Ks
MIL LINEUP
1Brice Turang (L)hit 69% · HR 15%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
2Jackson Chourio (R)hit 68% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
3Jake Bauers (L)hit 71% · HR 22%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
49%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
4Christian Yelich (L)hit 62% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
5Gary Sánchez (R)hit 61% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
6Garrett Mitchell (L)hit 68% · HR 14%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
7Luis Larahit 62% · HR 10%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
8David Hamilton (L)hit 57% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
9Cooper Pratt (R)hit 59% · HR 8%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
SF LINEUP
1Luis Arraez (L)hit 66% · HR 6%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
2Bryce Eldridge (L)hit 58% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
3Heliot Ramos (R)hit 61% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
4Rafael Devers (L)hit 60% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
5Jung Hoo Lee (L)hit 58% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
6Willy Adames (R)hit 55% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
7Daniel Susachit 52% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
8Grant McCrayhit 50% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
9Christian Koss (R)hit 47% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
Every bat, graded by the sim.
Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
MIL @ SF · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
56%
1st 5 Innings
SF F5
37%
Game Total
Over 8.5
35%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
40%
Run Line
SF -1.5
28%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
39%
Team Total
SF Over 4.5
28%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore SF by 0.74 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: MIL 4.07, SF 3.33
- Shane Drohan (MIL) vs Logan Webb (SF)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Thomas Pannone
MIL SP · vs. SF
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
10%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
26%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
16%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
- 14% to reach 5+ against SF
Logan Webb
SF SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
88%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
67%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
69%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
56%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
- 36% to reach 5+ against MIL
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.