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KC vs MIN

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the KC @ MIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

KANSAS CITYKC
0·0
MINNESOTAMIN
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

KC DUGOUTMIN DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

KC Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93.2
CV79.9
CH85.1
CH84.4
FB94.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

KC Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · KC LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

MIN to win

54%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

MIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL MIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

MIN wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYKC Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 18 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Kansas City vs Minnesota Winner?

46%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEMIN
LINEUP EDGEMIN

KC STARTER

Randy Dobnak

SHAKY
2.8
PROJECTED Ks
87
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 41% · 5% whiffSweeper · 24% · 36% whiffChangeup · 22% · 30% whiff

MIN STARTER

Joe Ryan

GOOD
5.7
PROJECTED Ks
112
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 46% · 27% whiffSweeper · 15% · 37% whiffSplit-Finger · 12% · 23% whiff

Joe Ryan grades good (Pitching+ 112) vs Randy Dobnak grades poor (Pitching+ 87)

KC LINEUP

  1. 1Carter Jensen (L)hit 59% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Lane Thomas (R)hit 55% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jac Caglianone (L)hit 63% · HR 18%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Salvador Perez (R)hit 55% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Michael Massey (L)hit 58% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nick Loftin (R)hit 53% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Isaac Collins (S)hit 55% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Josh Rojas (L)hit 51% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Tyler Tolbert (R)hit 53% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

MIN LINEUP

  1. 1Trevor Larnach (L)hit 70% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brooks Lee (S)hit 64% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Kody Clemens (L)hit 68% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Josh Bell (S)hit 66% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Royce Lewis (R)hit 63% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Victor Caratini (S)hit 61% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Alan Rodenhit 59% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Luke Keaschall (R)hit 59% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ryan Kreidler (R)hit 59% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

KC MIN

Game Markets

KC @ MIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIN to win

63%

1st 5 Innings

MIN F5

57%

Game Total

Over 8.5

50%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

54%

Run Line

MIN -1.5

47%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

35%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

51%

THE READ

MIN projects to outscore KC by 1.28 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: KC 3.84, MIN 5.11
  • Randy Dobnak (KC) vs Joe Ryan (MIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RD

Randy Dobnak

KC SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

88%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

37%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

73%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

60%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
  • 14% to reach 5+ against MIN
JR

Joe Ryan

MIN SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

68%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

12%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

65%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

33%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
  • 68% to reach 5+ against KC

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.