AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCOL vs SD
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the COL @ SD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
COL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
COL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · COL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
SD to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
SD -1.5
TEAM TOTAL SD
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
SD wins F5
event 1 / 18 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDColorado vs San Diego Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
COL STARTER
Gabriel Hughes
SHAKY- 3.3
- PROJECTED Ks
- 93
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
SD STARTER
Kyle Hart
GOOD- 4.3
- PROJECTED Ks
- 108
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: Slider is getting hit hard lately.
Kyle Hart grades good (Pitching+ 108) vs Gabriel Hughes grades poor (Pitching+ 93)
COL LINEUP
1Jake McCarthy (L)hit 64% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
2Cole Carrigg (S)hit 66% · HR 14%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
3Hunter Goodman (R)hit 67% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
4TJ Rumfield (L)hit 60% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
5Willi Castro (S)hit 62% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
6Tyler Freeman (R)hit 57% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
7Mickey Moniak (L)hit 64% · HR 19%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
8Ezequiel Tovar (R)hit 55% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
9Brett Sullivan (L)hit 53% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
SD LINEUP
1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)hit 72% · HR 10%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
36%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
48%
SCORES A RUN
2Jake Cronenworth (L)hit 64% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
3Manny Machado (R)hit 65% · HR 21%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
4Ty France (R)hit 68% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
5Jackson Merrill (L)hit 66% · HR 14%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
6Luis Rengifohit 62% · HR 6%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
7Gavin Sheets (L)hit 58% · HR 13%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
8Xander Bogaerts (R)hit 57% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
9Freddy Ferminhit 52% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
Every bat, graded by the sim.
Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/moIII · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
COL @ SD · full-game reads
Moneyline
SD to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
SD F5
45%
Game Total
Over 8.5
48%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
48%
Run Line
SD -1.5
37%
Team Total
COL Over 4.5
42%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
43%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.75 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: COL 4.29, SD 4.46
- Gabriel Hughes (COL) vs Kyle Hart (SD)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Gabriel Hughes
COL SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
62%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
24%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
50%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
- 24% to reach 5+ against SD
Kyle Hart
SD SP · vs. COL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
43%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
94%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
71%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
71%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
58%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
- 43% to reach 5+ against COL
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.