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AI MODEL READ

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CLE vs CIN

Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CLE @ CIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CLEVELANDCLE
0·0
CINCINNATICIN
TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

CLE DUGOUTCIN DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

CLE Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93.9
CT90.8
CH86
FB94.2
CH82.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

CLE Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · CLE LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CIN to win

34%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CIN wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCLE Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 16 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Cleveland vs Cincinnati Winner?

66%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECLE
LINEUP EDGECLE

CLE STARTER

Joey Cantillo

SHAKY
6.4
PROJECTED Ks
93
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 35% · 15% whiffCurveball · 27% · 38% whiffChangeup · 27% · 41% whiff

CIN STARTER

Brady Singer

SHAKY
4.3
PROJECTED Ks
89
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 48% · 15% whiffSlider · 29% · 35% whiffSweeper · 13% · 45% whiff

Brady Singer grades poor (Pitching+ 89) vs Joey Cantillo grades poor (Pitching+ 93)

CLE LINEUP

  1. 1Steven Kwan (L)hit 68% · HR 6%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2José Ramírezhit 64% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Chase DeLauter (L)hit 70% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Travis Bazzana (L)hit 65% · HR 15%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brayan Rocchio (S)hit 67% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Kyle Manzardo (L)hit 66% · HR 23%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Gabriel Arias (R)hit 67% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Patrick Bailey (S)hit 58% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Petey Halpinhit 58% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

CIN LINEUP

  1. 1Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 68% · HR 28%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    28%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    55%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Sal Stewart (R)hit 68% · HR 27%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Dane Myershit 58% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 59% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Tyler Stephenson (R)hit 57% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Noelvi Marte (R)hit 53% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Ivan Johnson (S)hit 53% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Edwin Arroyo (S)hit 52% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ke'Bryan Hayeshit 45% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    45%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    20%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CLE CIN

Game Markets

CLE @ CIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

CIN F5

36%

Game Total

Over 8.5

59%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

61%

Run Line

CIN -1.5

27%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

57%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore CIN by 1.23 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CLE 5.60, CIN 4.37
  • Joey Cantillo (CLE) vs Brady Singer (CIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JC

Joey Cantillo

CLE SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

81%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

15%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

83%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

17%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.4 strikeouts
  • 81% to reach 5+ against CIN
BS

Brady Singer

CIN SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

64%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

40%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

54%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 44% to reach 5+ against CLE

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.