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CHC vs STL

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CHC @ STL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CHICAGOCHC
0·0
ST. LOUISSTL
TOP 11-00 OUT

FIELD

CHC DUGOUTSTL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

CHC Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB95.5
FB94.5

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

CHC Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · CHC LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

STL to win

38%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

STL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL STL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

STL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCHC Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Chicago C vs St. Louis Winner?

62%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

CHC Over 3.5 runs

51%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 9-for-29 (.310) with 2 HR vs. this starter, career

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGECHC

CHC STARTER

Javier Assad

AVERAGE
3.5
PROJECTED Ks
103
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 42% · 8% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 19% · 13% whiffCutter · 15% · 15% whiff

STL STARTER

Andre Pallante

AVERAGE
3.4
PROJECTED Ks
104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 31% · 14% whiffSlider · 30% · 31% whiffSinker · 19% · 12% whiff

Andre Pallante grades avg (Pitching+ 104) vs Javier Assad grades avg (Pitching+ 103)

CHC LINEUP

  1. 1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)hit 72% · HR 26%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    52%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    31%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Seiya Suzuki (R)hit 69% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Michael Busch (L)hit 66% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Alex Bregman (R)hit 61% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Ian Happ (S)hit 63% · HR 20%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Michael Conforto (L)hit 65% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Pedro Ramírez (S)hit 63% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Dansby Swanson (R)hit 58% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Miguel Amaya (R)hit 55% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

STL LINEUP

  1. 1JJ Wetherholt (L)hit 65% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jordan Walker (R)hit 69% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Iván Herrera (R)hit 63% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Alec Burleson (L)hit 66% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Masyn Winn (R)hit 62% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6José Fermín (R)hit 58% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Blaze Jordan (R)hit 55% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Nathan Church (L)hit 56% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Pedro Pagés (R)hit 53% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CHC STL

Game Markets

CHC @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

STL to win

60%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

58%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

58%

Run Line

STL -1.5

43%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

56%

THE READ

STL projects to outscore CHC by 0.81 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CHC 4.56, STL 5.37
  • Javier Assad (CHC) vs Andre Pallante (STL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JA

Javier Assad

CHC SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

86%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

86%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

77%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 27% to reach 5+ against STL
AP

Andre Pallante

STL SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

85%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

39%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 26% to reach 5+ against CHC

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.