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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

BAL vs DET

Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the BAL @ DET simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

BALTIMOREBAL
0·0
DETROITDET
TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

BAL DUGOUTDET DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

BAL Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL84.6
CH83.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

BAL Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · BAL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

DET to win

53%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

DET -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL DET

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

DET wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYBAL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Baltimore vs Detroit Winner?

47%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

GAME TOTAL

✓ CONFIRMED

DET Over 4.5 runs

41%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 8-for-22 (.364) with 0 HR vs. this starter, career

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEDET
LINEUP EDGEDET

BAL STARTER

Trevor Rogers

AVERAGE
4.6
PROJECTED Ks
103
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 45% · 24% whiffChangeup · 22% · 25% whiffSweeper · 13% · 29% whiff

DET STARTER

Tarik Skubal

ELITE
8.7
PROJECTED Ks
121
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 37% · 25% whiffChangeup · 25% · 52% whiffSinker · 19% · 20% whiff

Tarik Skubal grades elite (Pitching+ 121) vs Trevor Rogers grades avg (Pitching+ 103)

BAL LINEUP

  1. 1Taylor Ward (R)hit 58% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Pete Alonso (R)hit 59% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Gunnar Henderson (L)hit 52% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Tyler O'Neill (R)hit 51% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Christian Encarnacion-Strandhit 52% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Coby Mayo (R)hit 54% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Leody Taveras (S)hit 46% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    20%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jeremiah Jackson (R)hit 48% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    20%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Chadwick Tromphit 43% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    43%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    18%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    13%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    19%

    SCORES A RUN

DET LINEUP

  1. 1Gleyber Torreshit 59% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Kevin McGonigle (L)hit 64% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Hao-Yu Lee (R)hit 64% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Dillon Dingler (R)hit 64% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Riley Greene (L)hit 62% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Eduardo Valenciahit 59% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Spencer Torkelson (R)hit 60% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Matt Vierling (R)hit 52% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Javier Báezhit 57% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

BAL DET

Game Markets

BAL @ DET · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

DET to win

67%

1st 5 Innings

DET F5

59%

Game Total

Over 8.5

34%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

39%

Run Line

DET -1.5

50%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

23%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

DET projects to outscore BAL by 1.52 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BAL 2.90, DET 4.42
  • Trevor Rogers (BAL) vs Tarik Skubal (DET)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
TR

Trevor Rogers

BAL SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

98%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

70%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

69%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

55%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 50% to reach 5+ against DET
TS

Tarik Skubal

DET SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

95%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

90%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

51%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

87%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

55%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

38%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

24%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.7 strikeouts
  • 95% to reach 5+ against BAL
DD

Dillon Dingler

DET · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
CM

Coby Mayo

BAL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
PA

Pete Alonso

BAL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
KM

Kevin McGonigle

DET · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
HL

Hao-Yu Lee

DET · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
ST

Spencer Torkelson

DET · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
RG

Riley Greene

DET · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 32% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
GT

Gleyber Torres

DET · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 22% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
EV

Eduardo Valencia

DET · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
JB

Javier Báez

DET · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 10% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 9
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
TO

Tyler O'Neill

BAL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
TW

Taylor Ward

BAL · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
CE

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

BAL · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.

  • Batting 5
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
MV

Matt Vierling

DET · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 58%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
GH

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 58%.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
JJ

Jeremiah Jackson

BAL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 58%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
LT

Leody Taveras

BAL · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

16%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 58%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
CT

Chadwick Tromp

BAL · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

9%

Total Bases

2+ bases

19%

Total Bases

3+ bases

9%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

14%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 58%.

  • Batting 9
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tarik Skubal

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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