AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDATL vs NYM
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the ATL @ NYM simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
ATL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
ATL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · ATL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
NYM to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
NYM -1.5
TEAM TOTAL NYM
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
NYM wins F5
event 1 / 18 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDAtlanta vs New York M Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
GAME TOTAL
✗ MISSEDATL Over 4.5 runs
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 5-for-17 (.294) with 2 HR vs. this starter, career · 79°F, 10mph wind
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
ATL STARTER
AJ Smith-Shawver
- 3.4
- PROJECTED Ks
- —
- PITCHING+
NYM STARTER
Sean Manaea
AVERAGE- 5.3
- PROJECTED Ks
- 97
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Sean Manaea grades avg (Pitching+ 97) vs AJ Smith-Shawver projects 3.4 Ks
ATL LINEUP
1Ronald Acuña Jr.hit 65% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
2Drake Baldwin (L)hit 72% · HR 27%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
36%
2+ HITS
27%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
37%
3+ BASES
29%
4+ BASES
42%
RBI
21%
2+ RBIs
52%
SCORES A RUN
3Matt Olson (L)hit 70% · HR 25%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
25%
HOME RUN
51%
2+ BASES
36%
3+ BASES
29%
4+ BASES
42%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
4Ozzie Albies (S)hit 65% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
5Michael Harris II (L)hit 70% · HR 21%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
48%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
6Mauricio Dubón (R)hit 58% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
7Austin Riley (R)hit 62% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
8Eli White (R)hit 59% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
9Joey Bart (R)hit 60% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
NYM LINEUP
1A.J. Ewing (L)hit 59% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
2Francisco Lindor (S)hit 57% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
3Bo Bichette (R)hit 55% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
4Carson Benge (L)hit 58% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
5Jared Young (L)hit 58% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
6Jorge Polancohit 50% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
7Tyrone Taylor (R)hit 52% · HR 13%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
8Brett Baty (L)hit 50% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
9Francisco Alvarez (R)hit 57% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
ATL @ NYM · full-game reads
Moneyline
ATL to win
67%
1st 5 Innings
NYM F5
26%
Game Total
Over 8.5
36%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
39%
Run Line
NYM -1.5
18%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
47%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
20%
THE READ
ATL projects to outscore NYM by 1.82 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: ATL 4.64, NYM 2.82
- Chris Sale (ATL) vs Christian Scott (NYM)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Chris Sale
ATL SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
81%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
70%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
30%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
61%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
36%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
36%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
23%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 7.1 strikeouts
- 81% to reach 5+ against NYM
Christian Scott
NYM SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
60%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
36%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
6%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
38%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
24%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
- 60% to reach 5+ against ATL
Drake Baldwin
ATL · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Christian Scott
Matt Olson
ATL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 31% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Christian Scott
Michael Harris II
ATL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 26% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Christian Scott
Francisco Alvarez
NYM · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chris Sale
Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1
- Facing Christian Scott
Ozzie Albies
ATL · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Christian Scott
Jared Young
NYM · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Chris Sale
Austin Riley
ATL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Christian Scott
Joey Bart
ATL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Christian Scott
Eli White
ATL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Christian Scott
A.J. Ewing
NYM · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Chris Sale
Carson Benge
NYM · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Chris Sale
Francisco Lindor
NYM · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Facing Chris Sale
Mauricio Dubón
ATL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Christian Scott
Tyrone Taylor
NYM · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 13% against 14%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chris Sale
Bo Bichette
NYM · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 63%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chris Sale
Brett Baty
NYM · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 63%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Chris Sale
Jorge Polanco
NYM · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 63%.
- Batting 6
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chris Sale
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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