AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDTOR vs WSH
Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals
Tuesday, July 28, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TOR @ WSH simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
TOR Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
TOR Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · TOR LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
WSH to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
WSH -1.5
TEAM TOTAL WSH
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
WSH wins F5
event 1 / 14 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDToronto vs Washington Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
TOR STARTER
Trey Yesavage
AVERAGE- 6.1
- PROJECTED Ks
- 97
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
WSH STARTER
Zack Littell
SHAKY- 2.9
- PROJECTED Ks
- 85
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.
Zack Littell grades poor (Pitching+ 85) vs Trey Yesavage grades avg (Pitching+ 97)
TOR LINEUP
1Yohendrick Piñango (L)hit 63% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
2Nathan Lukes (L)hit 66% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
3Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)hit 64% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
4George Springerhit 63% · HR 19%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
5Brandon Valenzuela (S)hit 57% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
6Daulton Varsho (L)hit 57% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
7Ernie Clement (R)hit 61% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
8Andrés Giménez (L)hit 54% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
9Luis Urías (R)hit 52% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
WSH LINEUP
1James Wood (L)hit 72% · HR 38%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
38%
HOME RUN
55%
2+ BASES
44%
3+ BASES
39%
4+ BASES
47%
RBI
23%
2+ RBIs
64%
SCORES A RUN
2Luis García Jr. (L)hit 72% · HR 35%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
35%
HOME RUN
53%
2+ BASES
42%
3+ BASES
36%
4+ BASES
47%
RBI
24%
2+ RBIs
54%
SCORES A RUN
3Dylan Crews (R)hit 60% · HR 17%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
4CJ Abrams (L)hit 70% · HR 34%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
34%
HOME RUN
51%
2+ BASES
39%
3+ BASES
35%
4+ BASES
47%
RBI
23%
2+ RBIs
51%
SCORES A RUN
5Keibert Ruiz (S)hit 58% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
6Daylen Lile (L)hit 59% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
7Nasim Nuñez (S)hit 56% · HR 5%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
8Jorbit Vivas (L)hit 52% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
9Jacob Young (R)hit 55% · HR 14%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TOR @ WSH · full-game reads
Moneyline
TOR to win
67%
1st 5 Innings
WSH F5
30%
Game Total
Over 8.5
60%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
61%
Run Line
WSH -1.5
21%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
62%
Team Total
WSH Over 4.5
38%
THE READ
TOR projects to outscore WSH by 2.13 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: TOR 6.15, WSH 4.02
- Trey Yesavage (TOR) vs Zack Littell (WSH)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Trey Yesavage
TOR SP · vs. WSH
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
76%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
59%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
14%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
77%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
35%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
43%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
30%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
- 76% to reach 5+ against WSH
Zack Littell
WSH SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
94%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
60%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
79%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
68%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
- 16% to reach 5+ against TOR
James Wood
WSH · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
38%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
41%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 38% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Luis García Jr.
WSH · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
35%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
39%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 35% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Trey Yesavage
CJ Abrams
WSH · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
34%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 34% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Trey Yesavage
George Springer
TOR · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4
- Facing Zack Littell
Nathan Lukes
TOR · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Zack Littell
Dylan Crews
WSH · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Zack Littell
Yohendrick Piñango
TOR · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Zack Littell
Ernie Clement
TOR · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Zack Littell
Jacob Young
WSH · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Keibert Ruiz
WSH · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Daulton Varsho
TOR · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Zack Littell
Daylen Lile
WSH · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 64%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Brandon Valenzuela
TOR · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 29% against 31%.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Facing Zack Littell
Nasim Nuñez
WSH · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Andrés Giménez
TOR · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Zack Littell
Jorbit Vivas
WSH · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 64%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Luis Urías
TOR · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 64%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Zack Littell
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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