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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

TEX vs TB

Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the TEX @ TB simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

TEXASTEX
0·0
TAMPA BAYTB
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

TEX DUGOUTTB DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

TEX Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB92.8
CV76.6
FB94.7
SL86.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

TEX Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · TEX LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TB to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TB -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TB

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TB wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYTEX Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 14 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGETB
LINEUP EDGETB

TEX STARTER

MacKenzie Gore

AVERAGE
5.3
PROJECTED Ks
99
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 45% · 23% whiffCurveball · 20% · 32% whiffChangeup · 11% · 36% whiff

TB STARTER

Casey Legumina

AVERAGE
4.8
PROJECTED Ks
104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 41% · 25% whiffSinker · 21% · 6% whiffSweeper · 13% · 30% whiff

Casey Legumina grades avg (Pitching+ 104) vs MacKenzie Gore grades avg (Pitching+ 99)

TEX LINEUP

  1. 1Joc Pederson (L)hit 64% · HR 30%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    30%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    31%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Wyatt Langfordhit 61% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Ezequiel Duran (R)hit 58% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Brandon Nimmo (L)hit 57% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Evan Carter (L)hit 47% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jake Burger (R)hit 54% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Nicky Lopez (L)hit 52% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Josh Smith (L)hit 45% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    45%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Austin Wynnshit 41% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    41%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

TB LINEUP

  1. 1Yandy Díaz (R)hit 69% · HR 16%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jonathan Aranda (L)hit 69% · HR 21%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Junior Caminero (R)hit 70% · HR 31%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    31%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    38%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    22%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Cedric Mullins (L)hit 57% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Chandler Simpson (L)hit 64% · HR 5%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Victor Mesa Jr. (L)hit 60% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Richie Palacios (L)hit 55% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Taylor Walls (S)hit 53% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Hunter Feduccia (L)hit 57% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

TEX TB

Game Markets

TEX @ TB · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TEX to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

TB F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

42%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

45%

Run Line

TB -1.5

29%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

34%

THE READ

TEX projects to outscore TB by 0.64 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TEX 4.36, TB 3.72
  • MacKenzie Gore (TEX) vs Casey Legumina (TB)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MG

MacKenzie Gore

TEX SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

80%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

15%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

26%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 64% to reach 5+ against TB
CL

Casey Legumina

TB SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

94%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

74%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

61%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 54% to reach 5+ against TEX
JC

Junior Caminero

TB · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

34%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

44%

Total Bases

4+ bases

38%

RBIs

1+ RBI

50%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

27%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 34% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing MacKenzie Gore
JP

Joc Pederson

TEX · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Casey Legumina
JA

Jonathan Aranda

TB · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing MacKenzie Gore
YD

Yandy Díaz

TB · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing MacKenzie Gore
WL

Wyatt Langford

TEX · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Casey Legumina
VJ

Victor Mesa Jr.

TB · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing MacKenzie Gore
CS

Chandler Simpson

TB · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing MacKenzie Gore
JB

Jake Burger

TEX · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Casey Legumina
CM

Cedric Mullins

TB · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing MacKenzie Gore
ED

Ezequiel Duran

TEX · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Casey Legumina
BN

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Casey Legumina
HF

Hunter Feduccia

TB · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing MacKenzie Gore
RP

Richie Palacios

TB · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing MacKenzie Gore
TW

Taylor Walls

TB · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing MacKenzie Gore
NL

Nicky Lopez

TEX · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Casey Legumina
JS

Josh Smith

TEX · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Casey Legumina
EC

Evan Carter

TEX · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 61%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Casey Legumina
AW

Austin Wynns

TEX · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

43%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 43% against 61%.

  • Batting 9
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Casey Legumina

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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