SEATTLESEA
54-58 · +3 AL WEST · W1 · 3-7 L10
@TUE 10:10 PM ETLAD HOME PARK
69-42 · +1 NL WEST · L2 · 6-4 L10
LOS ANGELESLAD
Weather
Home plate ump
Vic Carapazza K-0.5%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-2 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Luis Castillo
RHP · SEAPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
5.06
IP
99.2
K/9
7.8
BB/9
2.9
WHIP
1.39
L5 STARTS4.66 ERA · 13.5% K · 5.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
44%
28%
16%
12%
4-Seam FastballSliderSinkerChangeup
Justin Wrobleski
LHP · LADPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
2.88
IP
112.2
K/9
7.0
BB/9
1.7
WHIP
1.02
L5 STARTS3.26 ERA · 27.8% K · 3.8% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
50%
30%
4-Seam FastballSliderSinkerCurveballChangeup
MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMariners 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SEA LAD

Game Markets

SEA @ LAD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SEA to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

LAD F5

35%

Game Total

Over 8.5

57%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

60%

Run Line

LAD -1.5

27%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

56%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

SEA projects to outscore LAD by 1.20 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SEA 5.48, LAD 4.28
  • Emerson Hancock (SEA) vs Eric Lauer (LAD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
EH

Emerson Hancock

SEA SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

58%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 55% to reach 5+ against LAD
EL

Eric Lauer

LAD SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

96%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

79%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

68%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 20% to reach 5+ against SEA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

LUIS CASTILLO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAD hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%24.2%OPS-against.637
vs Left-handedK%16.1%OPS-against.890
LAD vs LHP (team)OPS.743K%20.2%

JUSTIN WROBLESKI SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SEA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.5%OPS-against.574
vs Left-handedK%21.8%OPS-against.725
SEA vs RHP (team)OPS.704K%22.8%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

LAD BATTERS vs LUIS CASTILLO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SEA BATTERS vs JUSTIN WROBLESKI

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SEA 1·LAD 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
SEA 1·LAD 4
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
62%LAD
SEA 23 · LAD 38 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-31LAD 6-2
2026-07-30LAD 4-2
2026-07-29SEA 7-6 · One-run game
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SEA19¢ · 19%
LAD88¢ · 88%
Total 6.5
Over57¢ · 57%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
SEA -1.5 ·
LAD +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
LINEUP FORM · L15

SEA OFFENSE

.295L15 team wOBA
-21 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

LAD OFFENSE

.293L15 team wOBA
-23 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT
DODGER STADIUM
106HR
HR factor1.06 · +
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

HR-friendly, low BABIP.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
CARAPAZZA
Called K rate-0.5% vs avg
Runs per 9
Games this yr334

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

MARINERS 58%

Mean score sim 5.54.3 · projected total 9.8 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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