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NYY vs CWS

New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the NYY @ CWS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

NEW YORKNYY
0·0
CHICAGOCWS
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

NYY DUGOUTCWS DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

NYY Leadoff (R) vs HP

CH83
SL87
FB95.2
FB95
CH84.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

NYY Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · NYY LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CWS to win

34%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CWS -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CWS

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CWS wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYNYY Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 16 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

New York Y vs Chicago WS Winner?

66%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGENYY
LINEUP EDGENYY

NYY STARTER

Cam Schlittler

ELITE
6.7
PROJECTED Ks
115
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 44% · 34% whiffCutter · 27% · 23% whiffSinker · 20% · 16% whiff

CWS STARTER

Davis Martin

SHAKY
3.8
PROJECTED Ks
87
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 26% · 26% whiffSinker · 19% · 8% whiffChangeup · 14% · 14% whiff

Davis Martin grades poor (Pitching+ 87) vs Cam Schlittler grades elite (Pitching+ 115)

NYY LINEUP

  1. 1Paul Goldschmidt (R)hit 70% · HR 22%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Ben Rice (L)hit 72% · HR 26%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Amed Rosario (R)hit 64% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jasson Domínguez (S)hit 64% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Trent Grisham (L)hit 65% · HR 14%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Anthony Volpe (R)hit 62% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)hit 64% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Max Schuemann (R)hit 57% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Austin Wells (L)hit 55% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

CWS LINEUP

  1. 1Sam Antonacci (L)hit 67% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Munetaka Murakamihit 66% · HR 27%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Miguel Vargas (R)hit 62% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Colson Montgomery (L)hit 61% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Andrew Benintendi (L)hit 61% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Braden Montgomery (S)hit 57% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Tristan Peters (L)hit 60% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Chase Meidroth (R)hit 57% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Drew Romo (S)hit 50% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

NYY CWS

Game Markets

NYY @ CWS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

65%

1st 5 Innings

CWS F5

29%

Game Total

Over 8.5

39%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

40%

Run Line

CWS -1.5

20%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

47%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

24%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore CWS by 1.64 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYY 4.69, CWS 3.05
  • Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs Davis Martin (CWS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CS

Cam Schlittler

NYY SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

78%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

24%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

50%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.7 strikeouts
  • 78% to reach 5+ against CWS
DM

Davis Martin

CWS SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

53%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

14%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 33% to reach 5+ against NYY
MM

Munetaka Murakami

CWS · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
BR

Ben Rice

NYY · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Davis Martin
CM

Colson Montgomery

CWS · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
PG

Paul Goldschmidt

NYY · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Davis Martin
MV

Miguel Vargas

CWS · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
JJ

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Davis Martin
TG

Trent Grisham

NYY · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Davis Martin
JD

Jasson Domínguez

NYY · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Davis Martin
SA

Sam Antonacci

CWS · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
AR

Amed Rosario

NYY · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Davis Martin
AV

Anthony Volpe

NYY · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Davis Martin
AB

Andrew Benintendi

CWS · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
TP

Tristan Peters

CWS · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
BM

Braden Montgomery

CWS · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
AW

Austin Wells

NYY · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 30% against 32%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Davis Martin
MS

Max Schuemann

NYY · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Davis Martin
CM

Chase Meidroth

CWS · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
DR

Drew Romo

CWS · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 66%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cam Schlittler

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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