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MIL vs SF

Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIL @ SF simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MILWAUKEEMIL
0·0
SAN FRANCISCOSF
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

MIL DUGOUTSF DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

MIL Leadoff (R) vs HP

CV75.2
CH87.1
SL84.7
CV77
CH84.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

MIL Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · MIL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SF to win

49%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SF -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SF

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SF wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYMIL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 20 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Milwaukee vs San Francisco Winner?

51%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESF
LINEUP EDGEMIL

MIL STARTER

Shane Drohan

AVERAGE
6.1
PROJECTED Ks
100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 30% · 32% whiffSinker · 21% · 13% whiffSlider · 20% · 39% whiff

SF STARTER

Logan Webb

GOOD
4.2
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 31% · 11% whiffChangeup · 26% · 29% whiffSweeper · 19% · 24% whiff

Logan Webb grades good (Pitching+ 105) vs Shane Drohan grades avg (Pitching+ 100)

MIL LINEUP

  1. 1Brice Turang (L)hit 64% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jackson Chourio (R)hit 67% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3William Contreras (R)hit 62% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Christian Yelich (L)hit 57% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Andrew Vaughn (R)hit 59% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Luis Larahit 57% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Garrett Mitchell (L)hit 63% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Cooper Pratt (R)hit 58% · HR 7%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9David Hamilton (L)hit 51% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

SF LINEUP

  1. 1Luis Arraez (L)hit 66% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Bryce Eldridge (L)hit 60% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Heliot Ramos (R)hit 59% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Rafael Devers (L)hit 57% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jung Hoo Lee (L)hit 58% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Willy Adames (R)hit 53% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Grant McCrayhit 50% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Drew Cavanaugh (L)hit 51% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Christian Koss (R)hit 44% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIL SF

Game Markets

MIL @ SF · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

SF F5

36%

Game Total

Over 8.5

41%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

43%

Run Line

SF -1.5

26%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

31%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore SF by 0.85 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIL 4.42, SF 3.57
  • Shane Drohan (MIL) vs Logan Webb (SF)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SD

Shane Drohan

MIL SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

76%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

13%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

97%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
  • 76% to reach 5+ against SF
LW

Logan Webb

SF SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

93%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

79%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

74%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

62%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 42% to reach 5+ against MIL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.