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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

KC vs MIN

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the KC @ MIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

KANSAS CITYKC
0·0
MINNESOTAMIN
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

KC DUGOUTMIN DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

KC Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB95.3
SL86.4
FB93.7
FB94
FB93.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

KC Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · KC LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

MIN to win

53%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

MIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL MIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

MIN wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYKC Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Kansas City vs Minnesota Winner?

47%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

MIN Over 4.5 runs

48%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 20-for-67 (.299) with 4 HR vs. this starter, career

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEMIN
LINEUP EDGEMIN

KC STARTER

Seth Lugo

SHAKY
2.8
PROJECTED Ks
95
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 20% · 13% whiffCurveball · 18% · 22% whiffCutter · 16% · 24% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

MIN STARTER

Taj Bradley

AVERAGE
6.4
PROJECTED Ks
101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 47% · 15% whiffCutter · 24% · 37% whiffSplit-Finger · 20% · 38% whiff

Taj Bradley grades avg (Pitching+ 101) vs Seth Lugo grades poor (Pitching+ 95)

KC LINEUP

  1. 1Carter Jensen (L)hit 62% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Lane Thomas (R)hit 53% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jac Caglianone (L)hit 60% · HR 18%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Salvador Perez (R)hit 55% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Vinnie Pasquantinohit 58% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nick Loftin (R)hit 51% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Michael Massey (L)hit 55% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Isaac Collins (S)hit 52% · HR 7%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Josh Rojas (L)hit 54% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

MIN LINEUP

  1. 1Trevor Larnach (L)hit 73% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    55%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Byron Buxton (R)hit 73% · HR 39%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    39%

    HOME RUN

    57%

    2+ BASES

    45%

    3+ BASES

    39%

    4+ BASES

    50%

    RBI

    27%

    2+ RBIs

    57%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Ryan Jeffershit 71% · HR 25%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Kody Clemens (L)hit 68% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Josh Bell (S)hit 64% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Victor Caratini (S)hit 60% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Luke Keaschall (R)hit 58% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Brooks Lee (S)hit 60% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ryan Kreidler (R)hit 58% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

KC MIN

Game Markets

KC @ MIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIN to win

68%

1st 5 Innings

MIN F5

62%

Game Total

Over 8.5

55%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

61%

Run Line

MIN -1.5

54%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

35%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

59%

THE READ

MIN projects to outscore KC by 1.83 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: KC 3.83, MIN 5.66
  • Seth Lugo (KC) vs Taj Bradley (MIN)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
SL

Seth Lugo

KC SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

73%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

40%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

57%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
  • 15% to reach 5+ against MIN
TB

Taj Bradley

MIN SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

17%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

87%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

57%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.4 strikeouts
  • 79% to reach 5+ against KC
BB

Byron Buxton

MIN · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

41%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

62%

Total Bases

3+ bases

50%

Total Bases

4+ bases

45%

RBIs

1+ RBI

53%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

30%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 41% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Seth Lugo
RJ

Ryan Jeffers

MIN · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Seth Lugo
KC

Kody Clemens

MIN · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Seth Lugo
TL

Trevor Larnach

MIN · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Seth Lugo
CJ

Carter Jensen

KC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Taj Bradley
JB

Josh Bell

MIN · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Seth Lugo
JC

Jac Caglianone

KC · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Taj Bradley
VC

Victor Caratini

MIN · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Facing Seth Lugo
BL

Brooks Lee

MIN · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Facing Seth Lugo
RK

Ryan Kreidler

MIN · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Seth Lugo
VP

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 5
  • Facing Taj Bradley
LK

Luke Keaschall

MIN · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Seth Lugo
SP

Salvador Perez

KC · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 15% against 16%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Taj Bradley
MM

Michael Massey

KC · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Taj Bradley
LT

Lane Thomas

KC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 64%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Taj Bradley
JR

Josh Rojas

KC · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Taj Bradley
NL

Nick Loftin

KC · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 64%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Taj Bradley
IC

Isaac Collins

KC · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Taj Bradley

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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