BETFLYAISIGN IN

AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

HOU vs LAA

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the HOU @ LAA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

HOUSTONHOU
0·0
LOS ANGELESLAA
TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

HOU DUGOUTLAA DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

HOU Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93.9
CT90.5
CT89.3
SL83.5
CV77.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

HOU Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · HOU LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

LAA to win

42%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

LAA -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL LAA

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

LAA wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYHOU Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 20 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Houston vs Los Angeles A Winner?

58%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGELAA
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

HOU STARTER

Peter Lambert

SHAKY
5.0
PROJECTED Ks
94
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 31% · 25% whiffChangeup · 23% · 36% whiffSlider · 15% · 26% whiff

LAA STARTER

Reid Detmers

GOOD
6.4
PROJECTED Ks
110
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 45% · 22% whiffSlider · 33% · 35% whiffCurveball · 11% · 38% whiff

Reid Detmers grades good (Pitching+ 110) vs Peter Lambert grades poor (Pitching+ 94)

HOU LINEUP

  1. 1Jeremy Peñahit 68% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Yordan Alvarez (L)hit 70% · HR 29%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    31%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Isaac Paredes (R)hit 62% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Christian Walker (R)hit 62% · HR 17%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jose Altuve (R)hit 58% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Cam Smith (R)hit 60% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Taylor Trammell (L)hit 56% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Zach Dezenzo (R)hit 55% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Christian Vázquez (R)hit 51% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

LAA LINEUP

  1. 1Zach Neto (R)hit 63% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Mike Trouthit 61% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Nolan Schanuel (L)hit 62% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jorge Soler (R)hit 56% · HR 15%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Vaughn Grissom (R)hit 60% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Wade Meckler (L)hit 59% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jo Adell (R)hit 58% · HR 12%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Oswald Peraza (R)hit 55% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Logan O'Hoppe (R)hit 53% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

HOU LAA

Game Markets

HOU @ LAA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

50%

1st 5 Innings

LAA F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

41%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

43%

Run Line

LAA -1.5

35%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

37%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.02 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: HOU 4.05, LAA 3.98
  • Peter Lambert (HOU) vs Reid Detmers (LAA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
PL

Peter Lambert

HOU SP · vs. LAA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

37%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
  • 52% to reach 5+ against LAA
RD

Reid Detmers

LAA SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

68%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

19%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

41%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.6 strikeouts
  • 83% to reach 5+ against HOU

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.