AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

COL vs SD

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the COL @ SD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

COLORADOCOL

0·0

SAN DIEGOSD

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

COL Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB92.3

SL83.6

SL85.4

CH83.8

SL85

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

COL Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · COL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SD to win

52%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SD -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SD

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SD wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYCOL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 15 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Colorado vs San Diego Winner?

48%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

GAME TOTAL

✓ CONFIRMED

SD Over 4.5 runs

48%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 17-for-51 (.333) with 1 HR vs. this starter, career · pitcher-friendly park

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESD

LINEUP EDGESD

COL STARTER

Michael Lorenzen

SHAKY

2.6
PROJECTED Ks: 90
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Changeup · 20% · 30% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 20% · 9% whiffSinker · 18% · 10% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

SD STARTER

Michael King

AVERAGE

4.5
PROJECTED Ks: 97
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 29% · 17% whiffChangeup · 28% · 29% whiffSweeper · 20% · 27% whiff

Michael King grades avg (Pitching+ 97) vs Michael Lorenzen grades poor (Pitching+ 90)

COL LINEUP

1Jake McCarthy (L)hit 66% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
2Mickey Moniak (L)hit 70% · HR 29%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
29%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
38%
3+ BASES
31%
4+ BASES
42%
RBI
21%
2+ RBIs
54%
SCORES A RUN
3Hunter Goodman (R)hit 70% · HR 37%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
37%
HOME RUN
54%
2+ BASES
43%
3+ BASES
37%
4+ BASES
48%
RBI
26%
2+ RBIs
52%
SCORES A RUN
4TJ Rumfield (L)hit 66% · HR 15%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
5Cole Carrigg (S)hit 61% · HR 13%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
6Troy Johnston (L)hit 60% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
7Willi Castro (S)hit 56% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
8Edouard Julien (L)hit 55% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
9Ezequiel Tovar (R)hit 50% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN

SD LINEUP

1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)hit 74% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
74%
1+ HIT
37%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
49%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
53%
SCORES A RUN
2Jake Cronenworth (L)hit 66% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
3Manny Machado (R)hit 67% · HR 27%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
27%
HOME RUN
47%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
28%
4+ BASES
45%
RBI
23%
2+ RBIs
51%
SCORES A RUN
4Ty France (R)hit 73% · HR 29%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
73%
1+ HIT
35%
2+ HITS
29%
HOME RUN
53%
2+ BASES
40%
3+ BASES
32%
4+ BASES
47%
RBI
25%
2+ RBIs
51%
SCORES A RUN
5Jackson Merrill (L)hit 66% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
6Luis Rengifohit 62% · HR 8%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
7Gavin Sheets (L)hit 60% · HR 17%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
8Xander Bogaerts (R)hit 58% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
9Luis Campusano (R)hit 64% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

COL SD

Game Markets

COL @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

65%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

65%

Run Line

SD -1.5

42%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

52%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

58%

THE READ

SD projects to outscore COL by 0.52 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: COL 5.13, SD 5.65
Michael Lorenzen (COL) vs Michael King (SD)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Michael Lorenzen

COL SP · vs. SD

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

60%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

17%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
15% to reach 5+ against SD

Michael King

SD SP · vs. COL

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

43%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
47% to reach 5+ against COL

Hunter Goodman

COL · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

37%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

45%

Total Bases

4+ bases

40%

RBIs

1+ RBI

50%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

26%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 37% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Michael King

Mickey Moniak

COL · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Facing Michael King

Jake McCarthy

COL · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Michael King

TJ Rumfield

COL · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Michael King

Kyle Karros

COL · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Michael King

Cole Carrigg

COL · bats S · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 6 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Michael King

Troy Johnston

COL · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Michael King

Edouard Julien

COL · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 65%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Michael King

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 65%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Michael King

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.