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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

CLE vs CIN

Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CLE @ CIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CLEVELANDCLE
0·0
CINCINNATICIN
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

CLE DUGOUTCIN DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

CLE Leadoff (R) vs HP

CV78.6
FB93
FB94.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

CLE Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · CLE LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CIN to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CIN wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCLE Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

CIN Over 4.5 runs

51%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 8-for-26 (.308) with 1 HR vs. this starter, career · hitter-friendly park

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECLE
LINEUP EDGECIN

CLE STARTER

Joey Cantillo

SHAKY
5.9
PROJECTED Ks
93
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 35% · 15% whiffCurveball · 27% · 38% whiffChangeup · 27% · 41% whiff

CIN STARTER

Brady Singer

SHAKY
4.7
PROJECTED Ks
89
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 48% · 15% whiffSlider · 29% · 35% whiffSweeper · 13% · 45% whiff

Brady Singer grades poor (Pitching+ 89) vs Joey Cantillo grades poor (Pitching+ 93)

CLE LINEUP

  1. 1Steven Kwan (L)hit 64% · HR 5%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2José Ramírezhit 60% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Chase DeLauter (L)hit 65% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Travis Bazzana (L)hit 59% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brayan Rocchio (S)hit 63% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Kyle Manzardo (L)hit 56% · HR 17%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Angel Martínezhit 55% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Patrick Bailey (S)hit 53% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Petey Halpinhit 53% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

CIN LINEUP

  1. 1Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 73% · HR 27%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    36%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    31%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    59%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Sal Stewart (R)hit 72% · HR 31%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    31%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    33%

    4+ BASES

    45%

    RBI

    22%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3JJ Bleday (L)hit 67% · HR 27%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 64% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nathaniel Lowe (L)hit 67% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Tyler Stephenson (R)hit 67% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Dane Myershit 62% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Edwin Arroyo (S)hit 56% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9TJ Friedl (L)hit 50% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CLE CIN

Game Markets

CLE @ CIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

60%

1st 5 Innings

CIN F5

37%

Game Total

Over 8.5

61%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

61%

Run Line

CIN -1.5

27%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

59%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore CIN by 1.30 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CLE 5.72, CIN 4.42
  • Joey Cantillo (CLE) vs Brady Singer (CIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JC

Joey Cantillo

CLE SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

87%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

23%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.9 strikeouts
  • 74% to reach 5+ against CIN
BS

Brady Singer

CIN SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

85%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

58%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

72%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

61%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
  • 51% to reach 5+ against CLE
SS

Sal Stewart

CIN · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

31%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

36%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Joey Cantillo
EC

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

44%

Total Bases

4+ bases

36%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 36% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Joey Cantillo
JB

JJ Bleday

CIN · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Joey Cantillo
ES

Eugenio Suárez

CIN · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Joey Cantillo
NL

Nathaniel Lowe

CIN · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Joey Cantillo
TS

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Joey Cantillo
CD

Chase DeLauter

CLE · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Brady Singer
SK

Steven Kwan

CLE · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Brady Singer
BR

Brayan Rocchio

CLE · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Brady Singer
DM

Dane Myers

CIN · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 7
  • Facing Joey Cantillo
KM

Kyle Manzardo

CLE · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brady Singer
JR

José Ramírez

CLE · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 2
  • Facing Brady Singer
TB

Travis Bazzana

CLE · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 31% against 32%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brady Singer
EA

Edwin Arroyo

CIN · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 65%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Joey Cantillo
AM

Angel Martínez

CLE · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 14% against 16%.

  • Batting 7
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brady Singer
PH

Petey Halpin

CLE · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 65%.

  • Batting 9
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brady Singer
PB

Patrick Bailey

CLE · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 65%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Facing Brady Singer
TF

TJ Friedl

CIN · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 65%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Joey Cantillo

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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