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CHC vs STL

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CHC @ STL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CHICAGOCHC
1·0
ST. LOUISSTL
TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

CHC DUGOUTSTL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

CHC Leadoff (R) vs HP

CH86.2
SL85.5

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

CHC Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · CHC LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

STL to win

34%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

STL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL STL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

STL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCHC Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 22 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Chicago C vs St. Louis Winner?

66%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical

GAME TOTAL

✓ CONFIRMED

CHC Over 4.5 runs

51%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 18-for-55 (.327) with 3 HR vs. this starter, career · low-strikeout opponent

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESTL
LINEUP EDGECHC

CHC STARTER

Matthew Boyd

AVERAGE
5.0
PROJECTED Ks
101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 47% · 18% whiffChangeup · 28% · 28% whiffSlider · 16% · 51% whiff

STL STARTER

Dustin May

AVERAGE
4.7
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 20% whiffCutter · 22% · 22% whiffSweeper · 19% · 33% whiff

Dustin May grades avg (Pitching+ 105) vs Matthew Boyd grades avg (Pitching+ 101)

CHC LINEUP

  1. 1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)hit 77% · HR 34%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    77%

    1+ HIT

    44%

    2+ HITS

    34%

    HOME RUN

    59%

    2+ BASES

    47%

    3+ BASES

    39%

    4+ BASES

    47%

    RBI

    23%

    2+ RBIs

    64%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Seiya Suzuki (R)hit 75% · HR 29%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    75%

    1+ HIT

    39%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    55%

    2+ BASES

    41%

    3+ BASES

    33%

    4+ BASES

    46%

    RBI

    22%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Michael Busch (L)hit 70% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Alex Bregman (R)hit 64% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Ian Happ (S)hit 69% · HR 26%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    42%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nico Hoerner (R)hit 63% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Michael Conforto (L)hit 68% · HR 23%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Carson Kelly (R)hit 62% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Pedro Ramírez (S)hit 62% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

STL LINEUP

  1. 1JJ Wetherholt (L)hit 67% · HR 18%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jordan Walker (R)hit 74% · HR 27%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    38%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    54%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    31%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Alec Burleson (L)hit 74% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    42%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Iván Herrera (R)hit 64% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Lars Nootbaar (L)hit 66% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Masyn Winn (R)hit 60% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Nathan Church (L)hit 59% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8José Fermín (R)hit 60% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jimmy Crooks (L)hit 58% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

CHC STL

Game Markets

CHC @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

STL to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

50%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

50%

Run Line

STL -1.5

37%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.91 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: CHC 4.34, STL 4.57
  • Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs Dustin May (STL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MB

Matthew Boyd

CHC SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

57%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

77%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

57%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 57% to reach 5+ against STL
DM

Dustin May

STL SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

70%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

49%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
  • 51% to reach 5+ against CHC
JW

Jordan Walker

STL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

41%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

42%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
AB

Alec Burleson

STL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 28% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
JW

JJ Wetherholt

STL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 22% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
LN

Lars Nootbaar

STL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
IH

Iván Herrera

STL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
JF

José Fermín

STL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 68%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
NC

Nathan Church

STL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 68%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
MW

Masyn Winn

STL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 68%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
JC

Jimmy Crooks

STL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 68%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Boyd

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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