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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

BAL vs DET

Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the BAL @ DET simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

BALTIMOREBAL
0·0
DETROITDET
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

BAL DUGOUTDET DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

BAL Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.1
FB94.5
FB94.7
FB94.6
FB94.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

BAL Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · BAL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

DET to win

44%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

DET -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL DET

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

DET wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYBAL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 15 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Baltimore vs Detroit Winner?

56%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEDET
LINEUP EDGEDET

BAL STARTER

Trevor Rogers

AVERAGE
4.5
PROJECTED Ks
103
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 45% · 24% whiffChangeup · 22% · 25% whiffSweeper · 13% · 29% whiff

DET STARTER

Tarik Skubal

ELITE
8.0
PROJECTED Ks
121
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 37% · 25% whiffChangeup · 25% · 52% whiffSinker · 19% · 20% whiff

Tarik Skubal grades elite (Pitching+ 121) vs Trevor Rogers grades avg (Pitching+ 103)

BAL LINEUP

  1. 1Dylan Beavers (L)hit 62% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Pete Alonso (R)hit 66% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Gunnar Henderson (L)hit 57% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Taylor Ward (R)hit 62% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Leody Taveras (S)hit 56% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jackson Holliday (L)hit 60% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Coby Mayo (R)hit 57% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Colton Cowser (L)hit 57% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Yohel Pozohit 51% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

DET LINEUP

  1. 1Kevin McGonigle (L)hit 65% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Gleyber Torreshit 63% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Riley Greene (L)hit 69% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Dillon Dingler (R)hit 67% · HR 31%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    31%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    31%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    22%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Colt Keith (L)hit 59% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Spencer Torkelson (R)hit 53% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Zach McKinstry (L)hit 51% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Eduardo Valenciahit 55% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Javier Báezhit 55% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

BAL DET

Game Markets

BAL @ DET · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

DET to win

63%

1st 5 Innings

DET F5

57%

Game Total

Over 8.5

35%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

39%

Run Line

DET -1.5

45%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

26%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

DET projects to outscore BAL by 1.12 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BAL 3.19, DET 4.32
  • Trevor Rogers (BAL) vs Tarik Skubal (DET)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
TR

Trevor Rogers

BAL SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

85%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

69%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

57%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 48% to reach 5+ against DET
TS

Tarik Skubal

DET SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

93%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

84%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

57%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

41%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

66%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.0 strikeouts
  • 93% to reach 5+ against BAL
DD

Dillon Dingler

DET · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
RG

Riley Greene

DET · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
PA

Pete Alonso

BAL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
ST

Spencer Torkelson

DET · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
KM

Kevin McGonigle

DET · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
DB

Dylan Beavers

BAL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
GT

Gleyber Torres

DET · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
TW

Taylor Ward

BAL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
EV

Eduardo Valencia

DET · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
CM

Coby Mayo

BAL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
JH

Jackson Holliday

BAL · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
CK

Colt Keith

DET · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
CC

Colton Cowser

BAL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
GH

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
LT

Leody Taveras

BAL · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 62%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
JB

Javier Báez

DET · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 13% against 14%.

  • Batting 9
  • Facing Trevor Rogers
YP

Yohel Pozo

BAL · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 62%.

  • Batting 9
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
ZM

Zach McKinstry

DET · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 62%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Trevor Rogers

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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