AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDATL vs NYM
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Tuesday, July 28, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the ATL @ NYM simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
ATL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
ATL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · ATL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
NYM to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
NYM -1.5
TEAM TOTAL NYM
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
NYM wins F5
event 1 / 22 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDAtlanta vs New York M Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
ATL STARTER
Chris Sale
ELITE- 6.6
- PROJECTED Ks
- 120
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
NYM STARTER
Christian Scott
AVERAGE- 5.4
- PROJECTED Ks
- 102
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Christian Scott grades avg (Pitching+ 102) vs Chris Sale grades elite (Pitching+ 120)
III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
ATL @ NYM · full-game reads
Moneyline
ATL to win
61%
1st 5 Innings
NYM F5
31%
Game Total
Over 8.5
36%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
36%
Run Line
NYM -1.5
22%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
41%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
25%
THE READ
ATL projects to outscore NYM by 1.21 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: ATL 4.34, NYM 3.12
- Chris Sale (ATL) vs Christian Scott (NYM)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Chris Sale
ATL SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
80%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
22%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
61%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
31%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
31%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
20%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.6 strikeouts
- 80% to reach 5+ against NYM
Christian Scott
NYM SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
67%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
62%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
15%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
39%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
26%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
- 67% to reach 5+ against ATL
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.