AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDTOR vs WSH
Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals
Monday, July 27, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TOR @ WSH simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
TOR Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
TOR Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · TOR LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
WSH to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
WSH -1.5
TEAM TOTAL WSH
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
WSH wins F5
event 1 / 17 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDToronto vs Washington Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
GAME TOTAL
✗ MISSEDWSH Over 4.5 runs
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 10-for-29 (.345) with 2 HR vs. this starter, career
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TOR @ WSH · full-game reads
Moneyline
WSH to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
WSH F5
53%
Game Total
Over 8.5
55%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
56%
Run Line
WSH -1.5
40%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
46%
Team Total
WSH Over 4.5
50%
THE READ
WSH projects to outscore TOR by 0.37 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: TOR 4.58, WSH 4.94
- Shane Bieber (TOR) vs Cade Cavalli (WSH)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Shane Bieber
TOR SP · vs. WSH
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
68%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
31%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
62%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
48%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
- 40% to reach 5+ against WSH
Cade Cavalli
WSH SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
70%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
51%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
8%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
83%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
16%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
52%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
38%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.6 strikeouts
- 70% to reach 5+ against TOR
James Wood
WSH · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
33%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane Bieber
Luis García Jr.
WSH · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
32%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane Bieber
CJ Abrams
WSH · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
32%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane Bieber
Ernie Clement
TOR · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 43% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Kazuma Okamoto
TOR · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Cade Cavalli
George Springer
TOR · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Dylan Crews
WSH · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Shane Bieber
Nathan Lukes
TOR · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Alejandro Kirk
TOR · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Daulton Varsho
TOR · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Cade Cavalli
José Tena
WSH · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane Bieber
Luis Urías
TOR · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Keibert Ruiz
WSH · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 71%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Facing Shane Bieber
Daylen Lile
WSH · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 71%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Shane Bieber
Myles Straw
TOR · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Jorbit Vivas
WSH · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Shane Bieber
Nasim Nuñez
WSH · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Facing Shane Bieber
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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