AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSEA vs TEX
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
Monday, July 27, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the SEA @ TEX simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
SEA Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
SEA Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SEA LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
TEX to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
TEX -1.5
TEAM TOTAL TEX
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
TEX wins F5
event 1 / 14 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDSeattle vs Texas Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
GAME TOTAL
✗ MISSEDSEA Over 4.5 runs
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 12-for-38 (.316) with 3 HR vs. this starter, career · 88°F, 13mph wind
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
SEA @ TEX · full-game reads
Moneyline
SEA to win
53%
1st 5 Innings
TEX F5
41%
Game Total
Over 8.5
66%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
66%
Run Line
TEX -1.5
34%
Team Total
SEA Over 4.5
60%
Team Total
TEX Over 4.5
54%
THE READ
SEA projects to outscore TEX by 0.55 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: SEA 5.70, TEX 5.15
- George Kirby (SEA) vs Kumar Rocker (TEX)
- Run on confirmed lineups
George Kirby
SEA SP · vs. TEX
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
51%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
91%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
71%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
80%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
70%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
- 51% to reach 5+ against TEX
Kumar Rocker
TEX SP · vs. SEA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
59%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
87%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
43%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
56%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
- 59% to reach 5+ against SEA
Dominic Canzone
SEA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Kumar Rocker
Luke Raley
SEA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Kumar Rocker
Joc Pederson
TEX · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing George Kirby
Wyatt Langford
TEX · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 32% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing George Kirby
Randy Arozarena
SEA · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 31% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kumar Rocker
Jake Burger
TEX · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing George Kirby
Julio Rodríguez
SEA · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Facing Kumar Rocker
Cole Young
SEA · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Kumar Rocker
Brandon Nimmo
TEX · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing George Kirby
Ezequiel Duran
TEX · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing George Kirby
Mitch Garver
SEA · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kumar Rocker
Josh Naylor
SEA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kumar Rocker
Nicky Lopez
TEX · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing George Kirby
Evan Carter
TEX · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing George Kirby
Josh Smith
TEX · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing George Kirby
Elias Díaz
TEX · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing George Kirby
Colt Emerson
SEA · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kumar Rocker
J.P. Crawford
SEA · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kumar Rocker
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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